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000
FXUS64 KLZK 170447 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1147 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Some spotty SHRA/isolated TSRA is lifting NE into and across
portions of the CWA early this Tue morning...though most areas are
remaining generally dry. Winds have initially remained relatively
weak so far tonight...but some higher elevations are starting to see
winds pick up this morning. This looks to be the trend throughout
the day...with SRLY winds increasing into the afternoon hrs.
Currently...looks like winds will remain just below Wind Adv
criteria...but there could be a couple spots that see winds gust
over 40 mph at times.

Moisture levels will continue to increase today...with increased
cloud cover expected to continue. These clouds will tend to keep
temps from warming too far...but expect to see temps in the 70s for
most areas. Where some clouds break up for a period of time...temps
could warm into the 80s as a result.

Convection looks to develop for portions of the area by midday into
the afternoon hrs as the dryline to the west of AR pushes east
before stalling/retreating this evening. Most of the upper level
energy will also be passing north of AR...and with SFC heating
limited by cloud cover...the instability and forcing seems a bit
lacking. However...deep layer SHR and 0-3km SRH look impressive
enough to see some SVR Wx potential. The caveat will be will there
be enough forcing to overcome mid-level warm/dry air to for
convection to be sustained. If storms develop...they will have the
capability to become strong/SVR...with the best potential for seeing
any SVR storms across the NRN half/two-thirds of AR this afternoon
in closer proximity to the upper forcing. All SVR hazards will be
possible with the strongest storms. Overall QPF looks limited given
the lack of precip coverage...but any storm could bring brief heavy
rain. The lack of precip coverage is also why POPs have been limited
to below NBM to likely category.

The precip potential will shift east of the area for tonight into
Wed...but the frontal boundary will remain W/NW of AR. Temps will
remain warm for Wed as a result...with temps in the 80s for most
areas. Mainly dry conditions will be seen through the rest of the
short term period...but POPs look to increase starting early in the
long term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

We will continue to see an unsettled wx pattern acrs the Mid-South
in the upcoming weekend. This wl result in periodic rain chcs as
several SWT`s traverse the region. By later this evening and early
next week, the steering pattern aloft wl turn NWly, which wl allow
for drier and cooler conds to return.

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing initially, but wl decrease
in coverage from the NW later Thu ngt into early Fri as the assocd
storm system shifts east of the region. The assocd CDFNT is progged
to stall out ovr the southern sections of AR on Fri, with some
lingering small rain chcs (20%) included ovr parts of central and
southern parts of the FA.

The next storm system wl bring rain and some storms back to most of
the area Sat and Sat night. Emphasis on `most of the area` as there
is still some inconsistencies regarding the location of the stalled
bndry and assocd rainfall.

The GFS keeps the bulk of the QPF further to south, compared to the
ECMWF. For consistency sake, opted to go with a blend of both
solutions, along with the NBM guidance attm. As previously
mentioned, once the main upper system shifts to the east, NW flow wl
usher in calmer conditions heading into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Some scattered SHRA will be possible early in the period for
central to SERN sections...but expect precip potential to
decrease by the morning hrs to the SE. Lingering MVFR or lower
CIGs will be possible for most sites...but these conditions should
improve to VFR by Wed afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     67  85  66  83 /  60   0   0  50
Camden AR         67  84  66  83 /  50   0  10  40
Harrison AR       58  86  64  84 /   0   0   0  70
Hot Springs AR    67  83  66  81 /  60   0  10  40
Little Rock   AR  68  84  68  83 /  70   0  10  40
Monticello AR     68  82  67  82 /  40  10  10  40
Mount Ida AR      66  83  66  82 /  40   0  10  40
Mountain Home AR  60  87  65  86 /   0   0  10  70
Newport AR        68  84  67  84 /  70   0   0  50
Pine Bluff AR     68  83  67  81 /  60   0  10  40
Russellville AR   64  85  66  86 /  10   0  10  40
Searcy AR         67  83  66  83 /  70   0   0  50
Stuttgart AR      68  82  67  82 /  70   0  10  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...62