783
FXUS64 KLZK 042324 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
624 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Warm/humid conditions will remain in place across the area through
the short term portion of the forecast along with frequent rain
chances.

W-SW H500 flow will be in place overhead through the period with
a notable shortwave expected to lift across the state later
tonight through early Monday morning. Storms associated with this
wave across west Texas this evening are expected merge into a
large TS complex and build east across Arkansas on Sunday. A
brief break in activity is expected Monday before a secondary wave
lifts across the area and additional showers and thunderstorms
should develop near the end of the period.

Overall severe threat should remain low with some possibility for
a few storms to produce gusty winds and hail. Some locally heavy
rainfall could lead to flash flooding as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:

An unsettled weather pattern takes hold into the day on Tuesday and
will remain in place for much of the long-term forecast period. On
Tuesday an upper lvl negatively tilted trof axis approaches the
Central Plains region of the CONUS in conjunction with a sfc low
pressure center positioned across the Northern Plains region of the
CONUS with an attendant southward extending cold front and dryline
that will initiate storms on Monday. A parameter space of strong
southerly sfc flow which will advect warm air temperatures and
appreciable dewpoint temperatures into the state setting the table
for the possibility of severe weather across much of the state will
take place. The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has already outlined a
slight risk for severe weather across portions of the CWA with
possible upgrades to come in future outlooks closer to Tuesday.
Expect the possibility of all modes of severe weather to be possible
on Tuesday. It will become clearer in future forecast
packages/discussion exactly what the main weather hazards will be,
but the parameter space across the CWA will be primed for all
hazards of severe weather.

Into Wednesday, an upper lvl closed low positions over the Northern
Plains region of the CONUS with a pronounced southern stream of
which will include a 70 to 80+ knot jet axis will be present over
the state. At the sfc, the same parameter space will exist from
Monday with the addition of upper lvl dynamics in place and closer
sfc lvl features including: a localized low pressure center across
Oklahoma and attendant southward extending dryline with a cold front
approaching from the northwest as a result from the parent sfc low
pressure center fixated across the Northern Plains region of the
CONUS. Again, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center), on Wednesday has
outlined a slight risk for severe weather which includes a large
portion of the state of Arkansas. Expect a second round of severe
weather on Wednesday, with this severe weather threat looking to be
a larger area that includes most of the CWA. Expect the possibility
of all modes of severe weather to be possible on Wednesday. It will
become clearer in future forecast packages/discussion exactly what
the main weather hazards will be, but the region across the CWA and
most of the state will be suspect to all hazards of severe weather.

THURSDAY:

The cold front that been to our west-northwest finally will track
across the state on Thursday keeping the chance for rain and storms
in the forecast. Expect rain and storms to remain a possibility on
Thursday with a gradual shift in cooler temperatures to begin to
work in behind the cold front which will bring our temperatures on
Friday and into Saturday closer to normal and even slightly below
normal for this time of the year compared to climatological normals.

FRIDAY/NEXT SATURDAY:

On Friday, the cold front will have completed the journey across the
Natural State; however, the cold front is forecast to begin slowing
down near the southeastern part of the state becoming a stationary
boundary along the I-20 corridor across Louisiana and Mississippi so
I have kept the possibility of POPs across southern Arkansas. On
Saturday, dry conditions are forecast to be present statewide as the
boundary moves well to the south and east of the CWA. Expect cooler
weather overall with temperatures near to below

In relation to temperatures, over the period from Tuesday through
Thursday, with respect to both low and high temperatures will be 5
to 10 degrees above normal compared to climatological normals over
the same timeframe. Then behind the cold front, temperatures on
Friday and into Saturday closer to normal and even slightly below
normal for this time of the year compared to climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Ongoing TSRA will still impact some terminals or near those
terminals this evening...before a break is seen later tonight.
However...additional convection will be seen during Sun
morning...lifting NE into the afternoon hrs. Some MVFR or lower
conditions will be likely with this activity. Some improvements
are possible late in the TAF period as the convection lifts NE of
the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     63  76  63  83 /  30 100  70  50
Camden AR         65  76  63  82 /  40  90  50  40
Harrison AR       60  70  60  80 /  30  90  50  30
Hot Springs AR    65  73  63  81 /  30 100  50  40
Little Rock   AR  67  76  66  84 /  20  90  60  40
Monticello AR     67  78  66  84 /  20  80  60  30
Mount Ida AR      64  73  63  81 /  40 100  40  40
Mountain Home AR  60  71  61  81 /  30  90  60  40
Newport AR        65  78  64  82 /  30 100  80  50
Pine Bluff AR     66  77  65  83 /  20  90  60  40
Russellville AR   64  73  63  82 /  30  90  50  30
Searcy AR         64  77  63  83 /  30  90  70  40
Stuttgart AR      67  77  66  83 /  20  80  70  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...62