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000
FXUS64 KMEG 252006
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
306 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
this evening, mainly to the north of Memphis ahead of a slow
moving warm front. After the warm front moves north of the Mid-
South, warmer and more humid conditions will spread into the
region on Friday and continue through the weekend. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected over eastern Arkansas and
the Missouri bootheel for Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorms will
become more widespread across the entire Midsouth Sunday night
through Tuesday, as a Pacific cold front approaches the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Skies are cloudy across southern sections of the Mid-South with
mostly sunny skies over the remainder of the region. Temperatures
this afternoon are in the 60s to around 70 degrees. A large area
of showers cover much of east Arkansas, southwest Tennessee and
north Mississippi. All of this activity is north of slow moving
warm front which extends across extreme southern Arkansas and into
central Mississippi.

As the warm front lifts north into north Mississippi tonight, the
area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move north into
northeast Arkansas and west Tennessee. Temperatures will remain
near normal tonight with lows from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

On Friday, the warm front continues to move north into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley, bringing an end to the threat of rain for
areas east of the Mississippi River. Behind the warm front, warmer
and more humid air moves into the region. Temperatures will be
some 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today with highs in the low to
mid 80s. A frontal boundary will stall out across the central and
southern Plains by Friday evening. Thunderstorms are expected to
form ahead of the front with some the activity reaching areas of
the Mid-South west of the Mississippi River for Friday night and
Saturday. Most areas should see dry weather for Saturday night
through Sunday morning as the thunderstorms that develop over the
southern Plains on Saturday are not expected to reach the Mid-
South.

By Sunday, the cold front will begin to move slowly east reaching
western Arkansas by Monday and into the Mid-South on Tuesday. As
the front gets closer to the region, showers and thunderstorms
will increase in coverage from west to east. Rainfall could become
heavy across portions of the Mid-South west of the Mississippi
River for Sunday night into Monday. Any threat of severe weather
should be confined to areas west of the Mid-South across central
and western Arkansas. With extensive cloud cover and rain
expected on Monday, temperatures will be cooler.

Once the cold front moves through the region, dry weather is
expected for Tuesday night. Warmer weather returns to the region
for Wednesday with a few thunderstorms possible ahead of an upper
level disturbance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Shower activity is expected to continue across the airspace
through the evening hours. CIGS should remain mostly VFR,
although an occasional bout of MVFR CIGS could occur with heavier
shower activity. While lightning activity has been observed, it
has been sporadic and inconsistent. Therefore, it has not been
included in TAF, but could still occur with an occasional embedded
thunderstorm. MVFR CIGS are possible at JBR overnight, with the
potential for gusty winds at all terminal sites by tomorrow
morning.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...JPR