Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
367 FXUS62 KMFL 301112 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 712 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 A mid level shortwave trough will work its way through the South Florida region today and Wednesday. Modest moisture advection will take place as surface flow continues to veer slightly further southeasterly. Therefore, chances for showers do increase in this mid-week period as a result of the trough and moisture advection to around 30-40% PoPs, but the overall pattern and thermodynamic profile will still be semi- stable as dry air in the mid-levels lowers the instability in the region. Thus, showers are expected to be shallow and scattered with very low thunderstorm chances as this disturbance pushes through. However, there will still be an isolated chance for a storm or two due to sea and gulf breeze development that push inland with highest chances for this being for interior areas. Temperatures for the next two days will mostly be in the mid to upper 80s across South Florida, although some east coast locations will top out in the low 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Weak surface high pressure will be situated in the western Atlantic for the long term period, which will lead to consistent easterly flow near the surface. Modest moisture advection and pooling will occur as well, allowing for slight chances for showers every day through the period. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as well, but will be few and far between since the local air mass will still be semi-stable. Showers and isolated storms could be enhanced further by daily gulf and sea breezes, but overall not expecting widespread activity since there are only occasional impulses of vorticity advecting through the area and no deep areas of low pressure. Temperatures will peak in the 80s with lower 80s along the Atlantic coast and upper 80s across Southwest Florida. The overnight low will be in the 60s except for lower to mid 70s across the east coast metro areas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 709 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 SCT showers will result in locally heavy rain along with sub VFR ceilings and Visbys today. SE winds increasing to 10-15 kts from late morning through the afternoon, although variable winds are briefly possible around convection. A westerly Gulf breeze is expected after 18Z at APF. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Marine conditions will continue to improve across the local waters for the next few days as winds and seas continue to diminsh. A moderate southeasterly breeze will be present with seas of 2-4 feet in the Atlantic through the middle of the week. These seas will continue to lower entering the late week period while Gulf seas will be at 2 feet or less. There will be chances for scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday which could create locally chaotic seas at times. && .BEACHES... Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 A high risk of rip currents will linger across the Atlantic beaches through mid week. Conditions may start to improve towards the end of the week as onshore flow decreases, however, the rip current risk may potentially remain elevated during this time frame. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 73 86 72 / 50 40 40 20 West Kendall 84 71 85 71 / 50 40 30 20 Opa-Locka 84 73 86 72 / 50 40 30 20 Homestead 83 71 83 71 / 40 40 30 20 Fort Lauderdale 82 73 85 74 / 50 40 30 20 N Ft Lauderdale 83 72 85 72 / 50 40 30 20 Pembroke Pines 83 73 86 72 / 50 40 30 20 West Palm Beach 82 70 86 70 / 40 30 30 20 Boca Raton 82 72 86 72 / 50 40 30 20 Naples 85 70 85 71 / 20 10 20 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...CMF