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000
FXUS62 KMHX 231943
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
343 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered to the south will push offshore tonight
with a frontal passage expected on Wednesday. High pressure
builds back into the area from the north on Thursday and
eventually slides offshore this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Tue... A rather delightful afternoon across ENC as
high pressure continues to ridge N`wards keeping skies clear,
and winds light as temps have climbed into mid 60s inland and
into the mid to upper 50s along the OBX. As we get into tonight
high pressure will gradually push offshore with a cold front
gradually approaching from the north and west. This will keep a
slightly pinched gradient across the CWA tonight allowing winds
to remain elevated at about 5-10 mph tonight coming from the
S-SW. While skies will continue to remain clear tonight this
elevated S`rly wind field will keep temps mild as compared to
last night with lows getting down into the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tue...As we get into Wednesday a cold front will
continue to approach ENC from the north and west eventually
beginning to track across the area Wed afternoon and evening.
This will do a few things, it will increase cloud cover as mid
and upper level moisture begin to stream in from the south and
west out ahead of the incoming front, as well as bring a chance
for some light shower activity across ENC from about 2PM on
into this evening. Latest Hi-Res guidance has come in rather
robust with precip chances and with the HREF probabilities of
seeing at least 0.01 inches of precip around 40-70% have
increased precip chances slightly closer to 20-25% Wed afternoon
though given the latest trends PoP`s may need to increase
further on future updates. Even with this front approaching and
beginning to move through the area during peak heating both
ensemble and deterministic probs for thunder are less than 10%
so have kept thunder out of the forecast on Wed. Finally the
only other impact this front will bring ill be to disrupt the
wind field around the frontal passage with 10-15 mph SW`rly
winds briefly becoming W-NW`rly at 5-10 mph directly behind the
front. Temps on Wed get into the low to mid 70s everywhere but
the NOBX where mid to upper 60s are currently forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term
with high pressure dominating early in the week, mostly dry
front moving through mid-week, and another high pressure setting
up through Monday.

Wednesday night...Dry cold front will move through Wednesday
night from NW to SE. As the front moves through Wednesday night
into Thursday morning, northerly wind gusts will be increasing,
but should remain below 30 kts.

Thursday to Monday...With the cold front now offshore, gusty
conditions will prevail through the afternoon, particularly for
OBX where gusts of 30mph are possible. High pressure lingers to
our north Thursday, and will remain near the eastern seaboard
through the end of the work week, aided by omega blocking aloft.
Remainder of the long term remains uneventful due to the high. Low
moving through the eastern US in the weekend will encounter
this stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains on if it will
be pushed north around the high, or if the high will give way.
If the low moves north, we will have less chances of precip in
the weekend. If the low is able to shift the high offshore, we
will see increased chances of precip. No mentionable PoPs with
this update for Saturday as high looks to shelter us from any
incoming precip. High will shift to our south in the weekend,
and easterly flow will gradually veer to become southwesterly at
the start of next week. After Wednesday`s cold front, high
temps gradually increase every day, above 80 inland Sunday
onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday morning/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday... With high pressure ridging overhead
clear skies as well as light and variable winds persist across
the much of the CWA this afternoon and should continue into this
evening. Only real change in the weather tonight will be winds
shifting to more of a S-SW`rly direction at 5-10 kts with gusts
up to 15 kts at times tonight with VFR conditions persisting
through Wed morning. Some high level cloud cover could begin
sneaking into our northern zones by late Wed morning out ahead
of an approaching cold front.

LONG TERM /Wednesday afternoon through Sunday/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Saturday with high pressure dominating the long term. Some
isolated showers Wednesday evening will be elevated in nature,
with cloud bases around 5kft.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 340 PM Tues... No significant changes to the marine
forecast as we are currently in between periods of SCA`s with
only the central waters currently seeing SCA conditions as
waves have remained around 5 to 6 ft across these waters with
3-5 ft seas elsewhere along the coast and light and variable
winds across our waters this afternoon. A tightening pressure
gradient is forecast to overspread ENC tonight as high pressure
ridging pushes offshore and a cold front begins to approach
from the north and west allowing winds to become SW`rly and
increase to 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts across all waters
outside of the inland rivers. Winds slowly begin to decrease
from west to east Wed evening with the approach of the front
with winds veering to a W`rly direction across our waters Seas
increase across all coastal waters to 4-6 ft to 5-7 ft tonight
and remain elevated into Wed evening before lowering.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 400 AM Tuesday... As a dry cold front moves southeastward
Wednesday night, northerly winds will pick up behind it,
gusting near 25 kts for all waters except for the Pamlico and
Neuse Rivers. Stronger gusts behind the cold front Wednesday
night into Thursday will be a quick hitter, and at this point it
is unsure if the gusts will be handled with a SCA or a MWS.
Remainder of the long term looks to be quiet with seas settling
to 3-5 feet Thursday-Saturday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RM/RCF