110
FXUS63 KMKX 281840
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
140 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional showers today and tonight. Isolated to scattered
  storms this evening into the overnight but severe storms and
  any flooding is very unlikely.

- Another round of showers and possibly a rumble of thunder
  Tuesday evening/night. A stronger system with additional
  showers / thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday,
  possibly continuing into Friday.

- Above normal temps likely Monday through Thursday, cooling off
  towards normal this weekend.



&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 139 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Brisk nely winds near the lake has pushed the fog mainly into ne
IL but the front will move back north this evening so fog
redevelopment is likely. Otherwise occasional lgt showers and
drizzle early this afternoon but heavier showers are expected to
develop once again as a sly 40 kt LLJ moves into srn WI. Moist
adiabatic lapse rates and very minimal elevated CAPE will
greatly limit the storm threat through the afternoon.

For tnt the low over ern NE will move toward se MN while it
occludes, which may prevent the warm front from lifting entirely
into central WI. A n-s band of showers and storms is expected
to develop ahead of the upper wave and large dry slot rotating
around the upper low. This band of showers and storms should
move newd into srn WI from 02-08Z, but lapse rates remain very
poor with very minimal MUCAPE. The SVR storm threat is very
marginal and near the IL border.

The cold front or occluded front will then pass Mon AM into the
early afternoon, while the low pressure area tracks from se MN
to wrn Lake Superior. Mild temps are still expected with the
stronger cold advection holding off until the evening. a few
lingering showers are possible especially along the front. Temps
will drop into the lower to middle 40s by sunrise Tue.


Gehring

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 420 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Today through Monday:

The cold conveyor behind the departed low pressure and the warm
sector of an approaching low pressure over the central plains
have created a stalled front, the exact position of which
remains uncertain going into this afternoon. Some models take it
as far north as a Racine to Madison line by this afternoon,
while others keep it right on the WI / IL border, or even south
of the border for eastern areas (near the refrigerating effect
of Lake MI). Our latest temperature forecast places it along a
Kenosha to Mineral Point WI line, with daytime highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s north of the boundary and mid 60s south of
it.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop near and north
of the front today. A few strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out, especially along and south of the warm front. HREF
ensemble mean MUCAPE holds around 500 j/kg near the warm front
today, possibly surging over 1000 j/kg this afternoon into this
evening as the stalled front begins a northward advance as a
warm front. The warm front fully crosses the CWA tonight into
early Monday morning, allowing one last chance for increased
shower / thunderstorm coverage. Storm coverage is expected to
decrease into Monday as a dry slot wraps into the low pressure,
though some models indicate scattered to isolated redevelopment
of showers / thunderstorms with lingering 850mb humidity.

Sheppard

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 420 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Monday night through Saturday:

Dry weather is expected Monday night through Tuesday, as high
pressure briefly moves through the area. Southerly winds Tuesday
ahead of an approaching low will push temps back into the 70s most
places, aside from cooler temps east as winds will likely turn
onshore in the afternoon.

A trough will then likely swing through the area Tuesday
evening/night, bringing a round of showers to southern Wisconsin.
There may be a few rumbles of thunder as well, given some weak
elevated instability.

High pressure will briefly return on Wednesday, with dry weather
and mild temps in the 70s once again. A stronger low pressure
system is then expected to gradually lift through the region
Wednesday night through Thursday, possibly even lingering in the
area into Friday per slower models solutions. Rounds of showers
are likely (60%+) at times with this system, with some occasional
thunder also possible. Models currently are showing the highest
chance for thunderstorms on Thursday, as the warm sector pushes
into or close to southern Wisconsin. Above normal temps are likely
through Thursday, cooling back towards normal by the weekend.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 139 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Cigs mostly below 1 kft today and tnt. Occasional showers will
continue but also with some fog development. Some dense fog may
occur near Lake MI. Farther inland, vsbys will trend downward to
1-3SM BR. A few storms may occur over far srn WI this evening
into the overnight. Gusty nely winds to 25-30 kt near Lake MI
today. Gusty swly winds over all of srn WI from late Mon AM
through the afternoon. Cigs will rise to MVFR during mid to late
Mon AM.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 420 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Low pressure around 29.7 inches drifts northeastward through Quebec
early this morning. Its cold front has already crossed two thirds of
the lake, and will stall near the southern end of the lake today as
the warm front of an approaching low pressure system collides with
it. Thus, north to northeast winds are expected across the majority
of Lake Michigan today, with the fastest winds (up to 30 kts) in
central Lake Michigan. Expecting light and variable winds over the
southern third of the lake (near the stalled front) and south winds
at the far southern tip of the lake.

Modest east to southeast winds will then develop over all of the
lake tonight as the stalled front moves north as a warm front. Brisk
east winds, possibly reaching gale force, are expected over the
northern tip of the lake late tonight into Monday morning. Breezy
south winds will develop over the remainder of the lake on Monday.

Areas of fog may form over the lake today, especially the southern
half. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
between now and Monday.

Sheppard

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 PM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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