Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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000
FNUS73 KMKX 271154
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Gov Nelson Rx burns...WI DNR
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
654 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on March 28.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Sunny conditions are expected Thursday with highs in the afternoon
rising to 45. We`ll be a bit further removed from recent rain, so full sun
and daytime mixing will allow min RH values to drop to around 35%. The mixed
layer should mix to a height of about 4000ft.

More importanly for Thursday, winds will be out of west at the
time of the ignition and remain westerly in the afternoon.
Winds will be fairly uniform through the mixed layer and above, so any smoke
plume will be advected off to the east. Smoke dispersal should be good
to excellent amid transport winds between 15 to 25 mph.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Temperature.........31 at ignition...Max 45.
RH..................51 percent at ignition...Min 34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 9 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 7 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4200 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /46700 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /75700 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   6   9   7   7   6   5   5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............31  34  36  39  41  43  44  43
RH..............51  45  42  39  36  35  35  38
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   9   9   8   7   7
20 FT wind gust.14  14  13  13  14  13  12  11
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 2.9
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.21  20  21  22  22  21  21  16
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100047  53  63  74  76  74  76  41

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........Min 26.
RH..................Max 81 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the east
                    around 5 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 13 mph shifting to the northeast
                    early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (18300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........6   10  9   9   8   11  14  17  18  19  20  28
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............41  40  38  36  34  32  31  30  29  28  28  27
RH..............42  48  52  54  58  63  66  69  69  71  71  74
20 FT wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  8   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.13  8   8   8   8   8   7   7   7   7   7   8
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100018  3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain in the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 56.
RH..................Min 51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........35  43  45  48  50  55  59  64  64  63  63  68
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                            RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
Temp............26  27  30  34  38  42  46  49  52  54  55  55
RH..............78  74  69  64  59  55  53  54  52  52  53  55
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   6   6   7   7   8   8   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   10  10  10  11  11  12  13  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6 1.9

$$
Forecaster...Miller
Requested by...Rebecca Mouw
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2408494.0/MKX
.DELDT 03/27/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL rebecca.mouw@wisconsin.gov


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