Text Products for FWS Issued by MKX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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000
FNUS73 KMKX 221007
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Gov. Dodge RX...WDNR
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
507 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 22.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Southwest 20 foot winds of 10 to 15 MPH are expected by ignition
time, with gusts to 20 MPH. Good smoke dispersal conditions at
ignition should quickly improve to excellent by midday.

Gusty southwest 20 foot winds of 15 to 20 MPH, with gusts to 30
MPH, are expected this afternoon. Deep mixing heights of 4000 to
6000 feet AGL should occur as well, which will result in relative
humidity values dropping into the 20 to 25 percent range over most
of the area this afternoon. Excellent smoke dispersal values are
forecast this afternoon.

The gusty winds and very low relative humidity values will result
in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. The relative
humidity values could drop a little lower, if deeper mixing
occurs. The middle to high clouds moving in this afternoon may
limit this potential.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........55 at ignition...Max 64.
RH..................34 percent at ignition...Min 21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 11 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southwest winds 5 to 13
                    mph with gusts to around 20 mph increasing to
                    15 to 17 mph with gusts to around 26 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 20 mph increasing to 35 to 36
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /47400 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /77400 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (109200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   7   9   12  21  29  38  51  64  78  83
Weather cov.....                                        SCH
Weather type....                                        RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............37  44  50  55  58  61  62  63  64  64  64
RH..............59  47  41  34  29  25  24  22  22  23  24
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   7   9   11  13  15  16  17  17  17  17
20 FT wind gust.    10  14  18  20  22  23  25  26  26  25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.4 4.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 4.0
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.13  14  20  23  26  29  31  32  35  36  35
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10004   13  29  47  77  109 145 150 160 164 119

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the evening, then slight
                    chance of rain showers late in the evening.
Temperature.........Min 46.
RH..................Max 74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 17 mph decreasing to
                    around 7 mph early in the morning. Gusts up to
                    35 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 22 to 30 mph becoming west 14 to 18
                    mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (67900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5600 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........88  93  90  86  83  72  61  50  37  25  12  15
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  61  60  58  56  55  55  55  53  52  49  48
RH..............27  32  36  40  45  51  53  55  61  63  71  71
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..17  16  17  17  17  17  16  15  12  10  8   7
20 FT wind gust.24  24  25  26  28  26  25  22  18  16  13  12
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.30  23  25  26  28  26  24  22  18  16  14  15
Haines index....5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100068  25  25  23  21  18  15  12  9   7   6   6

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Rain showers
                    likely and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 15 mph with gusts to around 23
                    mph shifting to the northwest around 15 mph
                    with gusts to around 22 mph late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 23 mph increasing to 25 to 29 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (72500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (97400
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........19  23  31  39  47  45  43  41  43  46  49  43
Weather cov.....                            LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............48  47  51  54  59  62  64  65  65  63  62  61
RH..............68  68  59  52  45  39  35  34  34  36  38  41
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
20 FT wind spd..7   8   9   10  11  12  13  14  15  15  15  15
20 FT wind gust.12  13  14  16  18  19  21  22  22  23  22  22
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.1 4.0 6.0 8.0 7.1 6.3 5.5 4.2
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.15  15  16  18  20  21  23  25  26  28  29  26
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10006   6   14  24  35  73  120 175 164 152 137 97

$$
Forecaster...Wood
Requested by...Mike Finlay
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411623.0/MKX
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mike.finlay@wisconsin.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
