191
FXUS64 KMOB 071816
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
115 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR conditions with southerly winds of 10-15 knots will continue
this afternoon. Winds will decrease tonight with low clouds and
patchy fog returning. VFR conditions return Wednesday morning. /13

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

An upper-level ridge continues to reside over the Gulf of Mexico
throughout the near term period. Its ridge axis extends northward
into the Lower Mississippi River Valley this morning. This axis
will push east across our area throughout the day today.
Northwesterly upper flow this morning will increase and turn more
west-southwesterly after the axis passes. At the surface, a
persistent high pressure system over the western Atlantic
maintains southerly flow across our area, keeping us in a summer-
like pattern. Overall storm coverage today still remains rather
questionable, however. Although there is plenty of moisture and
instability in place, subsidence from the passing ridge axis may
help to limit coverage across the area, especially with a lack of
any large-scale lifting mechanisms to counter the subsidence.
However, taking into consideration that upper-level flow will
increase and shift directions after the passage of the ridge axis,
a brief corridor of weak upper-level diffluence may materialize
over our northwestern zones during the afternoon hours. Therefore,
have maintained isolated to scattered rain chances for areas west
of I-65 (generally a 20-40 percent chance). It should be noted
that although coverage should be rather low, storms that do
develop will be working with CAPE values around 2000 J/kg, DCAPE
values greater than 1000 J/kg, and deep layer shear of around
30kts, with straight-lined hodographs. Due to this favorable
environment, any storm that does develop could become loosely
organized, posing a localized threat for strong to damaging winds
and/or hail up to quarter-sized. SPC has included our
northwestern-most zones in a Marginal Risk of severe weather for
this afternoon due to this potential. Activity will quickly
decrease by the evening hours due to the loss of daytime heating.

By Wednesday, the main ridge begins to shift northeastward, nosing
further into our area during the day and helping to provide stronger
subsidence across the area. Overall, except for a very isolated pop-
up shower or storm over our northern counties, expecting Wednesday
to remain dry.

Temperatures will continue to climb through the period as subsidence
strengthens across the area and warm air advection from the Gulf
continues. Highs today will range from the low to mid 80s along the
coast to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees inland. Lows tonight
will only drop into low to mid 70s. Highs Wednesday will top out in
the mid to upper 80s over coastal counties to the low 90s inland.
This paired with dew points in the upper 70s will give way to heat
indices tomorrow of around 97 to 102 degrees for areas north of I-
10. The rip current risk becomes high today and will remain high
through the rest of the week. /96



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  89  74  88  69  83  60  81 /   0   0   0  10  60  40  10  10
Pensacola   74  87  76  85  72  83  63  80 /   0  10   0  10  50  50  10  10
Destin      75  85  76  84  73  82  64  79 /  10   0   0  10  40  50  10  10
Evergreen   70  91  71  90  66  82  55  79 /   0  10  10  40  70  60   0  10
Waynesboro  71  92  71  90  65  82  55  79 /  10  10  10  40  70  30   0   0
Camden      70  92  69  88  65  80  54  77 /  10  20  10  50  70  40   0   0
Crestview   69  91  70  90  68  84  57  82 /   0  10   0  20  50  60  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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