Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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716 FXUS63 KMPX 061927 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 227 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few rumbles of thunder are expected tonight into Tuesday morning with up to an inch of precip possible. - A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms exists tomorrow afternoon/evening for far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. - Continued chances for showers with cooler temperatures through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Cloud cover has continued to increase through the day with strong southerly flow ahead of the expansive synoptic scale system that is bringing a variety of hazards to the central CONUS. Temperatures around noon had already reached the upper 60s and low 70s, but with cloud cover becoming thicker and more prevalent, we`ll likely only see a few more degrees of heating for today. Winds have gusted into the 35-40 MPH range across western Minnesota where a Wind Advisory remains in effect. Wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are more common further east, but a few higher gusts remain possible. As far as this evening`s showers and thunderstorms go, CAMs are in good agreement that any activity will hold off until after 00z. A northwest to southeast oriented line will push across the southern half of Minnesota through the overnight hours with the threat for thunder staying confined to far southwest Minnesota. The showers will move into the Twin Cities area after 06z and finally into Wisconsin by 09z. QPF amounts remain fairly unchanged from the previous forecast (widespread 0.25-0.50" with more localized totals of 0.5-1.0")with the bulk of the precip ending by mid morning with the now occluded front stretching across Minnesota. The focus then shifts to tomorrow afternoon and the potential for the development of a few strong to severe storms across far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The triple point associated with the low that continue to spin over the Dakotas should remain just to the south of our forecast area to start the day, but is expected to lift northward into western Wisconsin by the afternoon. This region has been highlighted by a Marginal Risk in the SPC SWODY2. Models have 700-1200 J/kg of CAPE across far southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin tomorrow afternoon, which would be more than sufficient to get some storms as the front continues to occlude/move east. The primary hazards will be hail and gusty winds with any of the stronger storms that develop. There`s still some uncertainty regarding the initiation time and just how far east storms will develop, but generally the timing looks to be during the late afternoon and evening hours. Any severe threat will diminish after 02-03z as instability wanes and the line of showers and storms exits to the east. Heading into Wednesday, there`s not much change from the previous forecasts. The upper low meanders slowly over the Dakotas and into Minnesota with a few embedded waves leading to some additional precip chances through Thursday, mainly for the southern half of the forecast area. Continued low PoPs exist through the end of the week with a separate shortwave dropping down out of Canada Friday. QPF totals will be around 0.5-0.75" throughout those three days with locally higher amounts possible. Temperature wise, Thursday is still on track to be the coolest day of the period with highs in the low 60s before rebounding quickly to end the week near 70 once again. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 VFR to start with continued breezy winds from now thru the rest of the TAF period. Strongest winds will be this afternoon through evening hours, with speeds near 20G30kts, then diminishing to around 15G25kts overnight through Tuesday. Still expecting a round showers with some embedded thunderstorms overnight through Tuesday morning. Mainly MVFR conditions when the swath moves across although some IFR visibilities are possible should heavier rainfall move atop any given terminal. Chances for CB/TS are best in western MN but cannot rule out the possibility going eastward so have opted to "upgrade" the phrasing from PROB30 to TEMPO. Improvement then expected late morning into early afternoon to VFR conditions but still with mid-level ceilings. KMSP...VFR to start with MVFR ceilings and rainfall likely around midnight or so tonight. A few thunderstorms within the eastern edge of the swath of rain may be seen/heard at MSP, with rain continuing through daybreak Tuesday morning. After VFR conditions return midday Tuesday, additional SHRA/TSRA are possible late Tuesday afternoon. Breezy SE winds (130-150 direction) likely through this evening, then backing a bit to around 120 overnight through late Tuesday morning, then winds become predominantly southernly the rest of the period. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NE 10-15 kts. THU...VFR. Wind NE 15-20G25-30 kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind W 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Chippewa- Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-Pope-Redwood- Renville-Stevens-Swift-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...JPC