Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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215 FXUS63 KMQT 160005 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 805 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and dry weather with borderline elevated fire weather across the eastern UP on Thursday. - Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms spread across Upper Michigan Thursday and Thursday night. Additional showers and storms are possible Saturday and the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 251 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the northern plains which moves into the upper Great Lakes 12z Thu. Quiet and dry weather will continue through tonight. Deeper moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence moves into the far west late tonight. Model trends continue to be slower bringing the pcpn into the area tonight and slowed it down into the far west late. This was the only major change made to the going forecast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 517 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 The extended period forecast is mostly on track with rain chances spreading east across the UP Thursday and Thursday night followed by a dry stretch before the next rain chances arrive on Saturday. Otherwise, mostly dry weather is expected with highs mainly in the 60s/70s and lows mainly in the 40s/50s. The upcoming rain chances are mostly on track with best chances across the west on Thursday closer to the low pressure center. Rain chances shift to the east Thursday night and should be enhanced by the nocturnal LLJ. Amounts are expected to be light (<0.25") everywhere, but there may be a few locally higher amounts across the western and eastern UP if thunderstorms occur. The late arrival of rain chances across the eastern UP suggests another day of borderline elevated fire wx conditions across the eastern UP where partly sunny skies should warm highs up to around 70F. Rain chances shift into Ontario Friday morning with the most likely outcome being dry weather until a cool front moves into the area on Saturday. It`s worth noting that 12z NAM and especially the 3km NAM developed shra/thunderstorms along lake breeze boundaries Friday afternoon. This seems to be an outlier solution stemming from the NAMs moist bias and 18z runs did not show that potential increasing confidence in the going dry forecast. The next system of interest is associated with a nearly vertically stacked low pressure of Saskatchewan Friday night. This systems warm front pushes across our area Friday or Friday night setting the stage for a warm Saturday with temps possibly breaching the 80F threshold across the interior west. The current forecast may be bringing PoPs into the area too quickly and the operational GFS continues to downplay this rain potential. However, there is increasing ensemble support for another wave of light rain showers Sat or Sat night. Once again, a few embedded thunderstorms are possible but there isn`t an established feed of Gulf moisture so I`m skeptical of thunder chances. The cold front pushes south and east of our area Sunday morning likely indicating a drier and somewhat cooler Sunday. Forecaster confidence diminishes quickly thereafter as model spread increases considerably. There continues to be some signal for cyclogenesis over the Central Plains along the trailing cold front, but timing and location details are murky. If this system develops and tracks into the Great Lakes as ensembles hint may be the case then a period of steady and perhaps even heavy rainfall will be possible toward the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 805 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 VFR conditions to prevail through tomorrow morning at most TAF sites, but IWD could deteriorate to MVFR by late tomorrow morning as the next system brings rain showers to the area. CMX and SAW will follow tomorrow afternoon with MVFR and rain showers. Northeasterly winds will shift to the southeast, but will generally remain under the 12 kt threshold. && .MARINE... Issued at 517 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Northeast winds around 20 knots are occurring over the far western lake this afternoon as a low pressure approaches from the Northern Plains. The pressure gradient support northeast winds around 20 knots continuing tonight into Thursday afternoon when east-southeast winds up to 20 kts spread across central and eastern portions of the lake. The low pressure exits the area by Friday morning leading to a period of light winds of generally 20 knots or less amidst stable conditions into Saturday morning. A cold front tracks across the lake Saturday into Sunday with southeast winds increasing to around 20 kts ahead of it then southwest winds up to 25 kts behind the front on Sunday. A few thunderstorms may (15% chance) traverse the lake from west to east with the front Saturday (west) and Saturday night (east). && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...EK AVIATION...TDUD MARINE...EK