750
FXUS64 KOHX 011135
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
635 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Areas of fog have developed especially along the Cumberland Plateau
over the last three to four hours with a couple sites reporting
visibilities of 0.25 mile. Visibility trends will be monitored
over the next few hours to assess if a dense fog advisory is
needed. West of the plateau the fog is not as prevalent. All of
the fog will mix out by 13-14z this morning with plenty of
sunshine today. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80s
this afternoon. A few patches of fog are possible tonight but it
will not be as widespread as what we are seeing now. Thursday will
be even warmer today with highs in the mid to upper 80s. 90
degrees still looks possible at a couple locations including BNA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The pattern will get more active starting Thursday night. A
weakening shortwave will approach the area with a few showers
possible before daybreak. Another disturbance will be on its heels
sparking more showers and storms on Friday. MUCAPE values Friday
afternoon will be 1500-2000 J/kg but effective shear will be
around 15 kts so widespread severe storms aren`t expected, but an
isolated downburst can`t be completely ruled out. We should
temporarily dry out late Friday night into Saturday morning. A few
scattered showers and storms will be possible Saturday afternoon
particularly along the plateau. MUCAPE values again will be in the
1250-1750 J/kg range but shear will remain weak. Another wave will
approach late Sunday or Monday bringing another chance of showers
and storms. Temperatures through the extended forecast continue to
look warm with lows in the 60s and highs in the 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A ridge of high pressure situated just to our east will influence
the weather pattern across Middle Tennessee this TAF period.
Expect VFR wx today/tonight with generally light winds shifting
to the S/SE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      87  62  88  67 /   0   0  10  40
Clarksville    86  61  87  65 /  10   0  10  50
Crossville     80  56  83  62 /   0   0  10  10
Columbia       86  59  87  65 /   0   0  10  40
Cookeville     81  59  84  64 /   0   0  10  20
Jamestown      81  57  85  62 /   0   0  10  10
Lawrenceburg   85  60  86  65 /   0   0  10  30
Murfreesboro   86  59  88  65 /   0   0  10  30
Waverly        87  62  88  64 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Rose