Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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505 FXUS64 KOHX 011701 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1201 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Due to continuance of ridging influences surface and aloft, dry conditions with just some passing clouds here and there will be in store for mid state region through Thursday afternoon. With a predominance of lower level atmospheric southerly flow, unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue. Lows tonight will be seasonably mild ranging upper 50s to lower 60s, mid 50s Cumberland Plateau Region. Highs on Thursday might even be a degree or two warmer than today with highs mid to upper 80s, maybe even approaching in a few spots the 90 degree mark across the Nashville Metro Area, with lower 80s across Cumberland Plateau Region. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 A more active and unsettled weather pattern will be in store for our area during the long term forecast period. Starting from the mid evening hours on Thursday night, mainly scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will push west to east across mid state region as southwesterly upper level flow begins to develop and within that flow a pronounced shortwave passage with a surface cold front pushing into the mid MS River Valley Region. Surface front will push into and move northwest to southeast across our area on Friday with another front approaching the area just after sunrise on Sunday but it will eventually push as a warm front northeastward as first part of next work week progresses. Quasi zonal flow aloft will persist through much of upcoming weekend with a more pronounced upper level shortwave passage on Sunday night with a return to at least quasi southwesterly flow as next work week progresses. This will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms to our area, with best chances of rainfall Friday Night into Saturday with at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm chances persisting through first part of next work week. Total rainfall amounts look to range from around one inch to around two inches of rainfall Thursday night through next Wednesday. A strong storm or two is not out of the question, but organized severe weather potential is not expected. After initially cooler temperatures over the weekend, temperatures will once again warm to above seasonal normal values by mid portion of next work week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 A ridge of high pressure situated just to our east will influence the weather pattern across Middle Tennessee this TAF period. Expect VFR wx today/tonight with generally light winds shifting to the S/SE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 87 62 89 66 / 0 0 0 50 Clarksville 86 61 87 65 / 0 0 0 60 Crossville 80 56 82 62 / 0 0 0 20 Columbia 86 59 87 65 / 0 0 0 40 Cookeville 81 59 85 64 / 0 0 0 30 Jamestown 81 57 85 62 / 0 0 0 20 Lawrenceburg 85 60 86 65 / 0 0 0 40 Murfreesboro 86 59 88 65 / 0 0 0 40 Waverly 87 62 87 64 / 0 0 0 60 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Rose