Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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887 FXUS64 KOHX 272254 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 554 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday Night) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Warm and somewhat humid for late April across the mid state this morning. The patchy shower activity to our west has all but ended. Temperatures are well into the 60s with southerly winds of 10-20 mph. Still looking at lower 80s for highs with a few peaks of sunshine for this afternoon. Through Sunday night, a surface high will remain off of the Atlantic coast. Meanwhile a low pressure system over the central Plains will be tracking northeastward. The gradient between the 2 features will continue to enhance our southerly flow with moderate winds being sustained. The surface low`s associated frontal boundary will experience a weakening trend as it approaches our area on Monday. Lifting however will become enhanced with a post frontal shortwave into Tuesday. As a result, showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday and into Tuesday. Instabilities will max out on Monday afternoon but 850 mb speeds will remain below 30kts and organization is on the weak side. So far, just a general risk is indicated. Otherwise, rainfall amounts look like a half inch to three quarters of an inch. For the near term temps, values look rather steady and quite mild for this time of year. Lows 60 to 65 and highs 80 to 85. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 In the extended forecast, again, showers and thunderstorms will still be around on Tuesday with that shortwave. Pattern will then morph to a more active southwesterly regime. Model uncertainties exist in terms of a break for mid week prior to the commencement of a more active pattern. It does look like a frontal system will finally arrive toward the weekend. This boundary holds a little more promise for a marginal risk perhaps. However, mid level jet resides to our north again. Moreover, though the surface low strengthens with ample ul support, it takes a far northerly track. No day 6-7 risk from spc thus far. Otherwise, our 7 day precip totals look like 1-2 inches. For the extended temps, mild conditions will continue. Behind the weekend system though, a little cooler but still above normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 VFR conditions expected. High pressure over the area will slowly slide east. Southerly winds with gusts 20-25 kts will continue. High clouds will thin out overnight and thicken again during the late morning and afternoon hours tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 66 84 65 82 / 0 0 20 40 Clarksville 65 83 66 80 / 0 0 40 70 Crossville 58 77 59 78 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 65 83 64 82 / 0 0 20 40 Cookeville 62 80 62 80 / 0 0 10 10 Jamestown 60 80 60 80 / 0 0 10 10 Lawrenceburg 65 82 64 82 / 0 0 10 30 Murfreesboro 65 84 64 84 / 0 0 10 30 Waverly 66 84 66 80 / 0 0 40 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....12