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000
FXUS64 KOUN 120835
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
335 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Surface ridge will continue to progress to our south and east today,
while at the same time, pressures will fall in the lee of the
Rockies as a response to increasing mountain-perpendicular flow.
This will result in tightening pressure gradient and return to gusty
southerly winds by afternoon, especially across western Oklahoma and
western north Texas. With this return flow, moisture will be
lacking and result in elevated fire danger conditions across the
driest portions of western/northern Oklahoma.

Winds will stay up tonight and allow low temperatures to average
ten degrees or so warmer than those this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

As a low amplitude shortwave progresses into the Southern Plains
from four corners region on Saturday, lee surface low is progd to
shift eastward into western Kansas, aiding dryline to become better
defined and shift east into more of western/northern Oklahoma. Main
sensible effects this will have is a more westerly wind behind the
dryline along with warmer and drier conditions which would keep
fire weather conditions elevated. There is still the potential
for higher temperatures and lower humidities across western/northern
Oklahoma on Sunday, but currently looks like winds will be weaker
where lowest humidities reside with departing surface low and
next lee trough formation occurring. Highest impact day for fire
weather still appears to be Monday, but trends in models is for
dryline to retreat and become established west of the 100th
meridian, before shifting eastward into the body of the state
during the evening/overnight hours Monday night. This would result
in a less than optimal parameter space for critical fire weather
conditions, but something to watch for in case dryline becomes
established farther east.

Severe weather still looks likely late Monday through Monday night.
Despite all models forecasting thick high level cloud cover Monday
(resulting in impacts on amount of heating) significant large
scale forcing ahead of upper low is progd. This large scale
forcing will likely be enough to overcome elevated mixed layer
east of the dryline, especially toward and after 00Z Tuesday.
With the potential for less heating east of the dryline,
convective initiation would be delayed, or at least timed more
closely to height falls after 00Z. Confidence on convective
initiation timing will likely increase on Saturday as we move
into the data window of high resolution models. Regardless, Monday
evening and Monday night will be a period that people need to be
prepared for higher end severe storm potential.

No significant cooling behind early week system, and with potential
for mixing down moderate winds on backside of strong system, fire
weather will continue to be an issue across northern Oklahoma.
Models are in better agreement on bringing a strong cold front
into the region around Thursday. Moisture will not be far away and
will try to surge north ahead of this front. If the front is
delayed until late in the day Thursday, severe weather would be
possible with frontal passage, especially across southern Oklahoma
and northern Texas. After much of the week with highs in the 80s
and maybe some 90s, highs in the 60s look most likely behind the
front to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions to continue.

Light winds overnight will increase from the south Friday morning
and become gusty by mid/late morning. Gusts above 25kts likely.
Skies will remain clear through the day with some high clouds
south by late in the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  57  81  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         78  53  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  81  56  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           83  54  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     76  54  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         78  56  81  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...30