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000
FXUS64 KOUN 162025
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
325 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A weak shortwave that is currently swinging across southwest
Arizona and Baja California will progress eastward tonight into
tomorrow and the associated mid-level height falls will lead to
the development of a surface trough over eastern New Mexico and
panhandles tonight. As this occurs, a warm front forms tonight
into tomorrow morning across western north Texas and southeastern
Oklahoma. This front lifts northward, though speed and northern
extent of the front is uncertain as models struggle with this
feature. A plume of low-level moisture advects north and west
behind the front in the form of some stratus and higher dewpoint
temperatures. Depending on how far north the warm front goes, a
pseudo-dryline could also form across parts of southwest Oklahoma
into western north Texas. Despite the moderate instability behind
the front, the cap should keep thunderstorms from developing
during that time frame.

As dynamic ascent overspreads the the surface boundary, there is a
slight chance of isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon across
western north Texas and adjacent southwest Oklahoma. Should a storm
develop, it could be strong to marginally severe with strong wind
gusts and small hail. Daytime temperatures will be warmer tomorrow
with highs in the upper 80s and near 90 degrees over western north
Texas.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A broad upper trough deepens over Canada and will drive a cold
front through our area on Thursday. There is considerable spread
on maximum temperatures for Thursday due to the varying frontal
speeds among the different models, especially across central
Oklahoma, where the 25-75th percentile (most likely) at OKC ranges
from 77 to 90 degrees. The NBM is trending faster, and given the
strength of the front, would expect this trend to continue.
Temperatures are expected to drop noticeably with the frontal
passage, though should rebound some within a few hours. It will
also be breezy with sustained north winds at 20 to 25 mph with
gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible. There is a marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms across southeastern Oklahoma on Thursday.

Then, north/northeast winds and much cooler temperatures are
expected Friday through Sunday with showers and thunderstorms
likely for areas south of I-40 late Friday night into Saturday
morning. High rain chances linger over southern Oklahoma and
western north Texas through Saturday evening. Winds gradually
shift towards the south on Sunday night with increasing south
winds and pleasantly warmer temperatures on Monday afternoon.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Gusty westerly to southwesterly winds will continue through the
afternoon before coming down and becoming more variable in
direction this evening. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  55  86  65  80 /   0   0  10  10
Hobart OK         51  87  59  76 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  55  89  65  85 /   0  20   0  10
Gage OK           48  87  52  69 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     52  85  61  78 /   0   0  20  30
Durant OK         62  86  67  88 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009-
     010.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...14