148
FXUS63 KPAH 110454
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1154 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected through the weekend with a warming
  trend to the upper 70s-lower 80s by Sunday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are forecast Monday-Tuesday.
  Potential for severe weather and/or flooding issues is
  limited.

- After a midweek break, a chance of showers and storms is in
  the forecast for the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Patchy cumulus is moving southward through the Quad State region
this afternoon. Temperatures have only risen to the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Northerly winds are gradually becoming lighter,
dropping below 5 mph overnight. A temporary shift to
southwesterly flow is likely ahead of a cold frontal passage
early tomorrow morning. Precipitation with the front is nearly
entirely northeast of the Quad State, with only a slight chance
of a light shower in the Evansville Tri-State. The front will
limit clearing potential overnight, especially in the
northeast.

Behind the front, breezy winds are forecast, near Lake Wind
Advisory criteria in the northeast Saturday. Dry weather and
mostly clear skies are forecast for the weekend, with a warming
trend as highs reach the upper 70s to lower 80s on Sunday with
southerly winds returning.

Models agree on a trough with an embedded low pressure system
moving eastward through the Quad State early next week. Showers
and storms are in the forecast Monday morning through Tuesday
night with the better potential for thunderstorms Tuesday as the
low approaches. With limited shear and mediocre lapse rates,
there aren`t model signals for severe storms. Rainfall around an
inch will keep things soggy and potentially extend minor river
flooding, but doesn`t stand out for flooding issues.

The NBM has very little separation between this early week
system and a late week system due to uncertainty on end
time/start time, but models suggest there will probably be a
solid 24-36 hours of dry conditions midweek as a narrow ridge
moves through. Models agree on late week troughing to our west
but have significant variation in structure, number of shortwave
disturbances, and progression, leaving PoPs in the chance
(30-50%) range for Thursday-Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light and
variable winds will become southwest at 5-10kts after 10z,
gradually shifting to the northwest between 12z-18z with the
passage of a weak cold front. Winds will become variable at 5
kts or less after 00z-02z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...RST