668
FXUS61 KPBZ 090106
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
906 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a dry day today, unsettled conditions with periodic
showers and storms return Thursday and persist through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Brief ridging will allow for dry weather and plenty of
  sunshine today.

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Only minor updates were made to the grids. Minimal cloud
coverage is expected today into this evening under increasing
subsidence as weak ridging transitions across the region. Warm
air aloft will keep a lid on any convection into this evening.
Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible after midnight,
along a boundary near the Mason-Dixon Line that could slowly lift
north overnight. Winds will lessen early this evening with
decoupling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers/storms return early Thursday through Friday.

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A sfc low approaching from the west will track along a boundary
in the vicinity of the Mason- Dixon line on Thursday, followed
by a shortwave on Friday. Another Marginal risk for flooding
seems to be the case. This will depend on where the main axis of
moisture sets up. Hi res models suggest this may be a bit
further south than the Tuesday night activity and may be less
impactful. NBM probs in DESI do surpass 40% for 1 inch for the
area south of the Mason Dixon. Thus, any flooding issues will be
dependent on training in WV or any heavier rainfall over the OH
and PA areas that received heavy rainfall already. Strong
height falls on Friday usher in a cooler pattern with a long
wave trough position in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Ensembles suggest a wet pattern into the weekend.
- Cooler temperatures arrive by late week with highs in the 60s
  this weekend.
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By Friday night into Saturday, another fast moving shortwave
dives southeast in northwest flow bringing another round of
showers to the area. Overall, a rather damp weekend is on tap.
The slow moving trough will keep rain chances through Sunday as
well.

Temperatures through Sunday will be 5-10 degrees below
the seasonal normal of about 70 this time of year.

Some moderation of temperatures is likely Monday and Tuesday as
heights rise and flow turns from northwest to more westerly,
though there is a possibility of another trough dropping over
the northeast on Tuesday keeping things a bit cooler than
currently forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR is expected to continue through at least 12Z before a low
pressure system track through the region and restrictions
showers and thunderstorms.

MVFR clouds and MVFR/IFR vis from convection are expected to be
in the vicinity of multiple TAF sites. Probability of thunder is
expected to increase after 16Z with diurnal heating and the
center of the low entering eastern Ohio. A few storms south of
PIT may be severe at times.

The potential for IFR to LIFR conditions increases late Friday
night under moist, cool conditions with a cold front.

.Outlook...
Restrictions will likely continue through Friday afternoon with
lingering low-level moisture and cold advection from the
northeast.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...CL/88
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger/88
LONG TERM...Shallenberger
AVIATION...Hefferan/88