822
FXUS61 KPHI 111917
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
317 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure over the region will move offshore this evening.
Low pressure centered over Lake Huron early this afternoon will
move eastward through this evening into Sunday. High pressure builds
south of the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday night into Monday. Another
area of low pressure brings more unsettled weather by the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A sea breeze will keep coastal areas sunny into the late
afternoon. Otherwise clouds are increasing west of the sea breeze
as the next disturbance approaches the area.

For tonight, some shower activity will begin to work its way into
the area after sunset from west to east as surface low moves
eastward from the Great Lakes region. The low will be
accompanied by a cold front, but the overall strength of the
system will be weakening as it nears. Widespread rain showers
are anticipated especially north and west of the Delaware Valley
where better forcing will be present. Rainfall up to a quarter
of an inch is expected. Lows will be in the mid to upper 40s.

H5 trough with associated vorticity advection will be moving
over the region on Sunday. With additional lift provided by weak
warm air advection, Sunday looks to be a rather wet and cool
day. Maximum temperatures are expected in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday night will feature improving conditions and the surface
low continues to move away and the upper trough passes through.
It`s possible that skies may become partly cloudy late giving
aurora viewing possibilities. One possibility will bring patchy
fog to the area if conditions become clear overnight.

Monday/Monday night... High pressure arrives during the day and
a partly sunny day is expected. Temperatures will be close to
normal for early May with highs in the low/mid 70s and lows (For
Tue morning) in the low/mid 50s. Clouds will increase over the
area Monday night.

Tuesday... Another slow moving low pressure approaches the
region. Increasing clouds thru the morning with rains arriving
during the day. Most models seem to agree with the overall
scenario and we`ll continue with chance pops for the morning
then mostly likely pops for the afternoon. It`s possible that
the furthest east areas may escape rains until late afternoon.
Temperatures will remain seasonable with mostly low 70s for
highs and 50s for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Rather unsettled much of the long term as low pressure slowly deepens
while moving up the Ohio Valley and then ambling across the Middle
Atlantic region. Likely/categorical pops beginning Tue night and
continuing Wednesday before scaling back Wed night. After a period
of lesser pops Thu into Friday morning, more showers/rains overspread
the region for next weekend. We`ll have chance pops for Fri night
and into Sat for now. There enough differences between the operational
models to have less confidence with regards to next weekends
fcst attm.

Normal high temperatures for our region this time of year are in the
low/mid 70s with upper 60s for the southern Poconos. We`ll arrive
close to these values much of the week with readings perhaps a degree
or two below normal Wed and above normal for Thu/Fri. Lows will be
in the 50s most days.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

This afternoon...VFR. Winds becoming E-SE 5 to 10 knots.

Tonight...VFR early, then ceilings will be dropping into the
1500 to 3000 ft range as rain showers move into the area after
03Z Lehigh Valley and Poconos, and after 06Z for the remainder
of the region. Visibility may drop to 3-5SM in fog late tonight.
Southeast winds 5-10 kt.

Sunday...Ceilings around 1000ft and visibility 3-5SM all
locations with periods of light rain. East to southeast winds
around 10 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR conditions early then conditions
  improving overnight. Patchy fog possible.

Monday through Tuesday...No significant weather expected.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday night...Sub-VFR conditions
  expected with occasional showers.

Thursday... VFR probable.

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters from Manasquan Inlet to
Fenwick Island until 6 PM today due to seas remaining above 5 feet.
Elsewhere, seas will remain below SCA criteria. Winds east to southeast
10-15 kt. Southeast winds then continue into tonight around 10-15
kt. Seas are expected to subside to 3-4ft tonight and Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday...No marine headlines expected. Fair.

Tuesday through Wednesday...SCA conditions possible (30-40%) as
wind gusts get near 25 kt. Seas will get near 5 feet on Wednesday.
Occasional showers.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal Flood Advisories were issued for tonight`s high tide for
coastal zones from Ocean County on south and for the lower Delaware
Bay in Kent, DE and Cumberland, NJ. Minor tidal flooding is expected
with some inundation of roadways possible. Elsewhere, spotty minor
flooding is expected within the upper Delaware Bay, tidal Delaware
River, tidal Raritan Bay, and along the NJ coast north of Ocean County.

Spotty minor flooding is also expected with tomorrow morning`s high
tide within the Chesapeake Bay. Some of the guidance suggests an
advisory may be needed, but have elected to hold off for now. Stay
tuned to the forecast for any further updates.

No further tidal flooding issues are expected beyond tonight/tomorrow
morning`s high tide.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Sunday for NJZ020>027.
DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Sunday for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Deal/Franklin
NEAR TERM...Desilva/Franklin
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Deal/Desilva/Franklin/OHara
MARINE...Deal/Desilva/Franklin/OHara
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...