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000
FXUS65 KPSR 250547
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1047 PM MST Wed Apr 24 2024

.UPDATE...Updated 06Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Two weather systems moving through the region over the next few
days will lead to much cooler temperatures with desert highs in
the low to mid 80s Thursday through Saturday. There will also be a
significant uptrend in windiness. The strongest winds will be over
southeast California tonight and again Friday. Precipitation
chances over the forecast area will be limited mainly to La Paz
County very late tonight and then south-central Arizona late
Friday night and Saturday morning. A warming trend begins Sunday
with desert highs climbing well into the 90s by Monday and
flirting with 100 Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A pattern change has begun with the high pressure ridge moving
eastward as an upper low (centered off the SoCal coast) advances
eastward. That system moves across our forecast area tonight and
during the day Thursday. The system will have to overcome a warm
and dry airmass and moisture advection looks to be modest.
However, there will be a cool front along with some dynamical
forcing to try to overcome the limitations. To varying degrees,
deterministic CAMs are showing a batch of showers starting up over
La Paz County late tonight and tracking northeastward brushing
northern portions of Maricopa County as well. Some subtle upward
adjustments were made to the NBM PoPs to increase the area with
slight chances. The shower activity increases just north over the
FGZ forecast area during the day Thursday due to a combination of
more orographic lift and destabilization (anticipate some
thunderstorms in the mix there as well).

The next system to affect the forecast area will be a
strengthening short wave originating from the Pacific Northwest.
The overland trajectory isn`t ideal for moisture advection but the
models have trended stronger with this feature and moisture
availability trends up a little bit. Plus, there will be some
preconditioning of the atmosphere from the previous system leading
to more widespread PoPs over AZ. However, those PoPs will still be
mainly limited to northern AZ but more of south-central AZ
(including portions of Greater Phoenix) will now have at least a
slight chance for precipitation - mainly late Friday night and
Saturday morning.

With the passage of these systems, a significant uptrend in
breeziness/windiness can be expected. As is often the case, the
strongest winds for our forecast area will be over southeast CA. A
Wind Advisory is in effect there tonight with a new Advisory there
for Friday afternoon and evening. A new Advisory has also been
issued for portions of southern Gila County for the same time
frame. The southwest corner of Imperial County continues to have
a longer lived Advisory in effect tonight through Friday evening.
Though there are any Advisories for Thursday, it will still be at
least breezy; likewise with Saturday.

After highs in the 80s Thursday through Saturday, a warming trend
begins Sunday with desert highs climbing well into the 90s by
Monday and flirting with 100 Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0545Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Current southwesterly winds will become southeasterly over the
next couple of hours. Winds will once again make their slow turn
to southwesterly around mid-morning. By the early afternoon
westerly/southwesterly winds will gust 15-20 kt before decoupling
after sunset, with speeds returning to aob 10 kt. FEW, to briefly
SCT, clouds with bases as low as 5-6 kft may develop in the
morning with bases rising to 10-12 kft during the day.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
While winds have calmed down some, westerly wind gusts of around
25 kt are expected to continue through the afternoon at KIPL. At
KBLH, southwesterly winds of 10-15 kt are expected to continue
into the early afternoon. Highest wind speeds are once again
expected tomorrow evening, with westerly gusts of 30-35 kt
expected at KIPL and southwesterly gusts of 20-25 kt expected at
KBLH. There is a low chance (10%) for a high-based shower to
develop near KBLH between 8-10Z before quickly moving off to the
east. FEW passing high clouds are expected overnight before clear
skies return by mid-morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Friday to midnight MST Friday night for
     AZZ557-558.

CA...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Friday to midnight PDT Friday night for
     CAZ560-563-565>567.

     Wind Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ560-563-565>567.

     Wind Advisory until midnight PDT Friday night for CAZ562.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJ
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...AJ