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000
FXUS64 KSJT 210814
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
314 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Early this morning, the mid-level trough axis that brought much-
needed rain to the area has moved eastward. This has allowed
northwest flow aloft to start settling over the region. However,
the cool and wet airmass in the low-levels remains in place and
should persist as a surface high moves southward into the southern
Plains today and will continue to push cooler air into the region
via northeasterly winds. The resulting stout inversion in the
low-levels should help cloud cover to persist for most of the
day. Initially, RAP soundings show the cloud depth anywhere
between 6000-8000ft. Some thermal mixing should still occur,
which would allow some breaks in cloud cover to appear by this
afternoon, mainly across the Big Country. Otherwise the Concho
Valley southward will likely remain mostly cloudy to overcast
through the day. High temperatures are expected to reach the low
to mid 60s, but this will depend highly on how much insolation can
break through the clouds. Overnight, low level winds should
become more southerly, which should help cloud cover to break up a
bit more. Lows should fall into the low to mid 40s across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Cold temperatures are forecast Monday morning, with overnight lows in
the low to mid 40s. A pleasant day is forecast on Monday with highs
topping out in the low to mid 70s. Expect a steady warm up through
the week, with highs on Tuesday through Thursday into the 80s, and
highs Friday into the weekend in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

An upper level trough is forecast to track across the northern
Plains Tuesday, sending a cold front south to near the Red River by
Wednesday morning. This front may be the focus for shower and
thunderstorms activity, but is forecast to generally remain north of
our area. For now, have kept some slight chance PoPs across the
northern Big Country on Wednesday. The next upper level trough is
forecast to track across the Desert Southwest Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, then across the Texas Panhandle Thursday night.
This will bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
region, Thursday into Friday. Given the uncertainty this far out,
PoPs were kept in the slight chance to chance category. The next
upper level trough is forecast to approach the region next weekend,
which could bring our next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

IFR conditions are expected to persist until around sunrise.
Ceilings should improve gradually from north to south through the
morning, becoming MVFR for most of the afternoon. Skies across the
Big Country should clear out by late afternoon, but remain
overcast around 3000ft further south. Some breaks in the MVFR
ceilings are possible this afternoon, depending on how much
heating occurs during that time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     62  42  71  53 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  64  43  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    67  45  75  53 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood   62  42  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  61  43  72  54 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       62  45  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       62  44  71  52 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...SK