920
FXUS01 KWBC 302001
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Valid 00Z Wed May 01 2024 - 00Z Fri May 03 2024

...Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall concerns for parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Great Plains through
mid-week...

...Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall now in place for the
Ark-La-Tex Thursday...

...Critical Fire Weather potential over portions of the Southern
High Plains on Wednesday...

...Cool and snowy in the Northwest; above average conditions
continue across much of the Central and Eastern U.S....

Mean ridging over the eastern U.S. with an energetic upper-level
trough over the north-central/northwestern U.S. will keep most of
the active weather over the next few days over portions of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Great Plains. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday evening as an upper-level
wave/surface frontal system over the Central Plains moves to the
northeast through the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley. There is an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather from the Storm
Prediction Center through Tuesday evening from central Iowa
southwestward through northeastern Kansas for the threat of very
large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Additional storms
further to the southwest along a trailing cold front will lead to
a risk for some locally heavy rainfall totals as storm motions
stall in tandem with the slowing cold front. Some scattered
instances of flash flooding will be possible from southeastern
Kansas into northern Oklahoma with a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) in place.

As this system departs to the into the Great Lakes, another
upper-level wave approaching from the west over the Rockies will
help to reinforce/organize the trailing frontal system over the
Central High Plains. This will bring yet another round of showers
and thunderstorms across the Plains Wednesday. Severe storms are
expected ahead of a dryline over portions of the Central/Southern
Plains. A broad Slight Risk is in place for very large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes, with a localized Enhanced Risk over
southwest Kansas/northwestern Oklahoma. Dry, windy conditions
behind the dryline will also bring a heightened threat of
wildfires, with a Critical Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) issued
by the Storm Prediction Center for the Southern High Plains.

Storms are expected to cluster/expand in coverage into the evening
hours Wednesday as the frontal system lifts into the Middle
Missouri Valley. A southern stream upper-level wave will help lead
to a second area of enhanced convective development over portions
of southern Oklahoma into much of the eastern half of Texas. In
both cases, plentiful moisture and a strong low level jet will
help foster locally intense rainfall, with Slight Risks of
Excessive Rainfall for the threat of scattered flash flooding.
Both areas of storms are forecast to continue into the day
Thursday with daytime heating bringing the potential for
additional development from the Upper-Mississippi Valley
south-southwestward through the Lower Missouri Valley and into the
Ark-La-Tex. A broad Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been
issued for the region, with a targeted Moderate Risk (level 3/4)
now in place for the Ark-La-Tex. Wet antecedent conditions due to
rainfall from any initial storms followed by the prospects of
additional development will continue the threat for flash
flooding.

Some showers and thunderstorms will remain possible along the East
Coast through Tuesday evening as a frontal system lingers over the
Northeast with a surface trough extending south through Florida.
Some storms may last into Wednesday and Thursday, particularly
over New England in vicinity of passing frontal systems. Unsettle
conditions will continue for the Pacific Northwest into portions
of the northern Interior West through mid-week as the upper-level
trough remains in place over the region. Lower elevations will see
light to moderate showers with snow for the higher elevations.
Snow accumulations should remain relatively limited except for
portions of the northern Rockies of Montana where winter-weather
related advisories/warnings are in place. Temperature wise,
conditions will tend to be above average ahead of the trough over
the central/eastern U.S. with numerous highs in the 80s outside of
the Northern Tier. Areas of the Central Plains east through the
Great Lakes will be in the 60s and 70s, with 50s and 60s for the
Northern Plains and New England. Conditions will remain below
average in the West, with mainly 50s and 60s for the Pacific
Northwest and the Interior West, 60s and 70s in central/southern
California, and warmer temperatures into the low 90s for the
Desert Southwest.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$