Text Products for AFD Issued by TAE

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
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FXUS62 KTAE 220502
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
102 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Shortwave trough passes through this afternoon and at the surface,
the cold front is making steady progress through the forecast area.
Around 3 pm ET it was located roughly from Tyndall AFB northeast to
Tifton. Winds have a little bit stronger this afternoon behind the
front with occasional gusts up to 25 or 30 mph from the north. These
gusts are confined just along and behind the front with gusts
dropping to around 15 to 20 mph after the front moves through. Rain
showers behind the front will persist a few hours after frontal
passage but clearing conditions were already noted across southern
Alabama and moving steadily southeast, and by Sunset most of the
rain should be through the forecast area except for the southeast
Big Bend.

For tonight, clearing conditions and cool temperatures are expected
with low temperatures generally in the upper 40s and low 50s. For
Monday, the surface high pressure fills into the region from the
west with clear skies and cooler conditions in the low to mid 70s
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A warming and moistening trend is expected through the short and
long term periods with high temperatures warming back into the mid
to upper 80s by Thursday and lasting into the weekend. Dry
conditions are expected through the next week, with no rainfall
expected. A weak front will approach the region on Thursday but
should stall out somewhere north of the area with little to no
effect on our local weather. Overall, warm but benign weather is
expected to prevail into next weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

MVFR cigs remain at the VLD terminal early this morning along
with light rain showers, but should clear away to VFR prior to
daybreak. All terminals will be VFR for the remainder of the TAF
period with northerly winds around 10kts. The DHN and ECP
terminals may have the occasional gusts between 15-20 kts during
the morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 922 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Breezy winds and building seas are expected tonight in the wake
of this afternoon`s cold front, with advisory conditions forecast
for waters west of Apalachicola and cautionary conditions east of
Apalachicola. Winds and seas are forecast to subside late Monday
into Tuesday. Fairly benign boating conditions are expected
thereafter.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Cold front moves through this afternoon with drier northerly flow
moving in for Monday. Fire weather concerns will be on the low end
except high dispersions across the region on Monday. Warmer
conditions move in for the upcoming week and no rain is anticipated
for much of the upcoming week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Minor to moderate flooding remains on the Withlacoochee River this
afternoon although levels continue to fall. Minor flooding
continues along the St Marks River, Aucilla River, and Suwannee
River as well, with further rises expected along the Suwannee
River over the next week. The only rain chances in the forecast
are today, and totals are not expected to be enough to produce any
meaningful riverine response.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  50  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   73  53  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        70  47  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        70  46  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      72  49  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    75  50  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  72  58  71  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ750-752-
     770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
