594
FXUS62 KTBW 292337
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
737 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
West coast sea breeze boundary is slowly pushing inland across
the coastal counties this evening. Sufficient L/L moisture and
instability below a mid-level capping inversion for isolated
showers over southwest Florida...with a few light
sprinkles/showers possible as far north as Hillsborough county.
Shower activity will be end a few hours after sunset, with skies
becoming mostly clear after midnight across the forecast area.

A weak U/L trough will push across the Florida peninsula tomorrow.
Slight increase in moisture and deep layer instability. Onshore
boundary layer flow will push the west coast sea breeze boundary
inland over the interior by mid/late afternoon, with a chance of
a shower along the boundary...and can`t rule out an isolated
thunderstorm should the mid level cap sufficiently erode.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

High pressure in the Atlantic remains in control with its associated
ridge axis north of the area. This has favored an east-southeast
flow today and a sea breeze collision along/near the I-75 corridor,
which may allow for some isolated shower activity to develop this
evening mostly around southwest FL but thunder chances are still
expected to be too low to include in forecast. Meanwhile, a
shortwave trough will swing across the lower Mississippi Valley
tonight and track towards the Southeast US on Tuesday and this
feature will bring an uptick in moisture and some forcing for ascent
into the area. This will allow for better precipitation chances
tomorrow across portions of the area and overall higher
precipitation coverage, but the main focus will be interior areas as
a weaker pressure gradient tomorrow will allow the sea breeze to
spread further inland so most coastal areas should be dry. Models
are also showing that there should be better instability tomorrow so
isolated to scattered storms will be possible in interior areas
where the best low level convergence is expected to occur and with
500mb temperatures around -10C/-11C, some small hail can`t be ruled
out but the activity should generally remain sub-severe.

A lingering surface trough off the Southeast coast in the wake of
the shortwave trough combined with the sea breeze should allow
for another round of scattered showers and isolated storms on
Wednesday with interior areas being favored once again as the sea
breeze spreads inland. While rain chances will lower late week as
upper ridging builds across the eastern US, there still could be
some opportunity for showers and storms as weak troughing aloft
lingers nearby and the sea breeze develops. By the weekend,
conditions appear to be similar with low daily rain chances and
highest coverage during the late afternoon and evening sea breeze
as a mostly easterly flow sets up south of surface high pressure
off the mid-Atlantic coast. Given the mostly easterly flow late
week and through the weekend, temperatures remain above average in
the upper 80s and low 90s into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions expected at all terminals tonight and Tuesday.
Isold light showers this evening over southwest Florida could
briefly impact PGD/RSW/FMY. Skies will be mostly clear after
midnight. SCT040-050 BKN250 will develop at all terminals on
Tuesday, with a slight chance of an afternoon shower...mainly
vcnty LAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Isolated showers may develop by this evening around southwest FL
coastal terminals along the sea breeze and while this activity
should be light if it develop, brief restrictions could occur if
any heavier pockets of showers develop. As a result, VCSH has
been added to southwest FL terminals from roughly 00Z-03Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are in place throughout the TAF period
with winds turning southerly tonight and eventually onshore into
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Warm and dry high pressure continues over the region with
minimum RH values approaching or perhaps reaching critical levels
at times, particularly in interior areas. While fire danger
remains slightly elevated today due to higher wind speeds, wind
speeds will generally decrease over the next several days as the
pressure gradient relaxes across the area so no red flag
conditions are expected at this time. In addition, there will be a
slight increase in rain chances into mid week as a disturbance
approaches the area with scattered showers and isolated storms
possible mostly in interior areas before mostly drier weather
returns again late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  86  70  87 /  10  10   0  10
FMY  67  87  70  89 /  20  20  10  20
GIF  65  88  68  90 /  10  20  10  30
SRQ  68  87  68  87 /  10  10   0  10
BKV  62  88  61  88 /  10  10   0  20
SPG  72  84  73  84 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery