Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
851
FXXX10 KWNP 060031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 06 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 06-May 08 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 06-May 08 2024
May 06 May 07 May 08
00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.33
03-06UT 5.67 (G2) 3.00 2.67
06-09UT 5.67 (G2) 2.67 2.67
09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 1.67 2.00
12-15UT 3.67 1.67 2.00
15-18UT 3.67 2.67 1.00
18-21UT 2.67 3.67 2.00
21-00UT 2.67 2.67 2.00
Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels are likely on 06 May due
to persistent CME activity.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 06-May 08 2024
May 06 May 07 May 08
S1 or greater 30% 30% 30%
Rationale: A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists,
primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664, over the
next three days.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 05 2024 0601 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 06-May 08 2024
May 06 May 07 May 08
R1-R2 90% 90% 90%
R3 or greater 50% 50% 50%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong), over the next three days due to the flare
potential of multiple regions on the visible disk.