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000
FXUS65 KTFX 262104
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
304 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Areas of rain and mountain snow will continue across the area
through Saturday as a slow moving weather system moves through.
Warmer and drier air arrives for Sunday, but the active weather
pattern will resume as we head into the start of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

-Cool and damp weather expected for Saturday with snow in the
higher terrain
-Unsettled weather continues through next week with periods of
rain and mountain snow

Short term (through Sunday)... Current radar and satellite
imagery continue to show precipitation moving in from the south as
a broad upper level trough continues to work its way into the
Northwestern CONUS. By and large, this precipitation has been
largely beneficial, with no notable impacts occurring at this time
with any snow melting on contact with any paved surfaces. Expect
precipitation to continue on and off through the rest of the day
across Southwestern Montana, even as the area of precipitation
continues to gradually make its way to the north. As we head into
the overnight hours tonight, expect snow levels to dip down to
6000 feet across the Southwest, which will allow for some
nighttime accumulations across some of the mountain passes and
some high elevation towns, such as West Yellowstone.

As we head into the day on Saturday, precipitation will coalesce
along a line mostly along the continental divide to 50 miles
eastward. Most of this will be light rain, though we could see
some snow across the passes, such as Homestake, Marias, and
McDonald Passes that would mainly stick to the grassy surfaces and
may struggle to accumulate on the roadway thanks to the high late
April sun angle. Further east across the southwest, we will still
see a few showers and maybe a rumble of thunder as some showers
develop over the higher terrain. Across the rest of the plains,
expect mostly cloudy conditions through the day on Saturday until
this band of precipitation moves east during the late evening and
overnight hours. Sunday will see drier and slightly warmer air
move into the area, resulting in a pleasant day to get outside
across the area.

Extended (Monday through next Friday)... The first half of next
week will be cool and unsettled as a series of upper level systems
roll across the area. While the exact details remain uncertain at
this time, overall expect multiple chances for rain and mainly
mountain snowfall Monday through Wednesday, with even a nonzero
chance for some snow reaching the plains at times, especially as
we head towards midweek. Like the rain this weekend, this will
generally be beneficial precipitation, though there could be some
impacts if some snow were able to manage to stick, though at this
point there isn’t nearly enough confidence to put much focus on
the nature of any potential snow.

The second half of the week should bring warmer and drier weather
as an upper level ridge builds into the area. We may still have a
few leftover rain or snow showers as a few weak systems roll over
the ridge, but these would likely be isolated and limited in
duration. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
1122 AM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 (26/18Z TAF Period)

A slow moving upper level disturbance moving over the Western United
States will bring precipitation and mountain obscuration to the
Northern Rockies, particularly to areas along the Continental Divide
and south of a KGTF to KLWT line. MVFR/VFR conditions are
predominately expected across Southwest through North Central
Montana throughout the TAF period; however, heavier bursts of
precipitation within shower activity near the KEKS terminal may
bring brief periods of IFR conditions this evening through Saturday
morning. - Moldan

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  56  39  61 /  40  70  60  10
CTB  38  53  35  58 /  20  60  30   0
HLN  42  53  39  61 /  60  80  60  20
BZN  36  56  37  60 /  60  70  70  60
WYS  33  52  32  50 /  70  90  80  70
DLN  38  50  36  57 /  70  90  50  20
HVR  39  65  42  67 /  10  20  30  20
LWT  38  58  38  58 /  30  20  30  50

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Saturday for Elkhorn and
Boulder Mountains-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead
Mountains.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Saturday for Gallatin and
Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Northwest
Beaverhead County.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls