Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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661 FXUS21 KWNC 031836 PMDTHR US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EDT May 03 2024 SYNOPSIS: Mid-level high pressure over the West Coast and surface high pressure over the Great Plains results in a relatively tranquil period of weather for week-2. High temperatures and continued rainfall deficits lead to a risk for rapid onset drought (ROD) for portions of central Florida. HAZARDS Rapid onset drought possible for portions of central Florida. DETAILED SUMMARY FOR MONDAY MAY 06 - FRIDAY MAY 10: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php FOR SATURDAY MAY 11 - FRIDAY MAY 17: At the outset of week-2 ensemble models favor moderate ridging(troughing) over the West Coast(Great Lakes) as depicted by 500-hPa height anomalies. Model solutions dampen both features over the course of week-2, with weak positive height anomalies and mostly zonal flow over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) by the end of the forecast period. At the surface, building high pressure is favored over the Great Plains, which will help to bring cooler temperatures for the southern CONUS. Positive height anomalies over the Pacific Northwest at the outset of the forecast period are favored to bring much warmer-than-normal temperatures to portions of Washington and Oregon, however these are not expected to exceed hazardous thresholds so no hazard is posted. In Alaska, as we move into the middle of May snowmelt season is underway and frozen rivers are beginning to break up. This leads to the potential for river flooding related to ice-jams. We continue to monitor the situation but currently there are no indications of impending major river break-ups or serious threat of ice-jamming so no flooding-related hazards are posted at this time. In Florida, above-normal temperatures and near- to below-normal precipitation is forecast during week-1 and into week-2. In parts of the central Florida peninsula soil moisture levels are declining due to limited precipitation in recent weeks and months. Abnormal dryness (D0) has been developing and expanding across this region. As we approach the middle of May, increasing sun angles and temperatures in the 80-90 Deg F could lead to further drying of soils and potentially lead to drought conditions across this region. Therefore, an area of rapid onset drought (ROD) is posted for portions of central Florida. FORECASTER: Danny Barandiaran $$