532
FXUS63 KTOP 130858
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
358 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue on and
off today. Additional rain amounts are forecast under a half inch
for most, but localized amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible today.

- Next chance (40-70%) of showers and thunderstorms comes
  Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Vertically stacked low resides over the state as of 08Z this
morning, placing eastern KS in the prime location for PVA through
the night into the early morning hours. Still, rainfall has been
mostly light and widely scattered across the area. Some moderate
rainfall has been seen in spotty locations on radar reflectivity,
but overall has remained hit or miss so far. As the 500mb trough
continues to progress east through the day, showers and perhaps a
few thunderstorms should continue on and off. The bulk of this is
expected to last into the afternoon before the trough axis moves
east of the area this evening. There may still be some isolated
showers from the deformation zone tonight into early Tuesday, but
even this looks to be focused across far eastern KS. Rain totals
have been drastically lowered from yesterday, between the fact that
amounts have remained light so far and today`s showers were expected
to be more scattered in nature anyway. Short-term guidance supports
most areas seeing under 0.5" of accumulation today, although there
may be a few pockets of 0.5 to 1" wherever any thunderstorms or
repeated rounds of rain occur. These higher amounts are mainly
focused across northeast KS. Still not anticipating severe weather
with thunderstorms, as MUCAPE is forecast to be 1000 J/kg or less
with weak shear (20 kt at best).

Tuesday is expected to be mostly dry with clearing skies, aside from
the off chance far eastern KS still has lingering showers very
early. Then low-amplitude ridging is progged to be in the area, but
not for long as the next 500mb trough approaches late Tuesday into
early Wednesday. The northern stream looks to traverse across the
northern/central Plains while the southern stream breaks off into a
closed low near the SoCal coast. The sfc low in response to the
southern stream becomes more well-defined Wednesday night into early
Thursday, which is also when we appear to have the best large-scale
ascent from the upper shortwave energy. As a result, the highest
PoPs (40-70%) are focused on the 00-12Z Thursday time frame.
Instability looks slightly better Wednesday (up to 1500 J/kg), but
drops off in the evening, so confidence in severe weather with this
round remains low but is still something to monitor.

The deterministic solutions have the rain moving out by Friday
morning, but ensemble guidance has the range of possible solutions
widening toward Friday and into the weekend. This leads to low
confidence in precip chances through the weekend. Cluster analysis
shows some weak upper ridging may develop over the area, which would
favor a warmer trend in temperatures for the weekend. Highs in the
80s are currently forecast by then, but this could easily change in
the meantime. Until then, highs mainly in the 70s are forecast with
the exception of some 60s today where clouds and rain would keep
conditions cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A swath of light to moderate rain is slowly moving northeastward
from south central KS, and this is what is expected to bring the
bulk of rainfall overnight. MVFR cigs and vis look to accompany
this activity, followed by some brief IFR cigs possible,
particularly at MHK. Showers should return to being more
scattered in nature through most of Monday before tapering off
late in the period. While some TS can`t be ruled out, it looks
too isolated to mention in TAFs. Very little lightning has been
observed with the rain upstream in southern KS within the last
hour. Outside of rain, winds look light and variable through the
night and pick up from the north Monday afternoon. VFR
conditions should return at least at MHK during the afternoon,
though MVFR stratus looks to continue behind the rain further
east.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha