916
FXUS64 KTSA 290810
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
310 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A few lingering showers and thunderstorms continue across northwest
AR, but these are advancing east and will wrap up the next couple
of hours. Otherwise, widespread fog has developed over much of
the area, with a Dense Fog Advisory now in effect.

A weak boundary is moving into the area from northwest to
southeast, it`s currently moving into the Tulsa area. CAM guidance
does not advance it that much further into the area, perhaps
another county or so east and south. Areas to the north of this
boundary will dry slightly, eroding the fog potential. The fog
will burn off shortly after sunrise today. With sunny and dry
conditions for the rest of the morning and afternoon, highs will
warm nicely, into the mid to upper 70s for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Quiet weather will continue for much of Tuesday, with temperatures
surging into the low to mid 80s as southerly flow resumes. By
Tuesday evening a boundary will sag into northeast OK, with at least
a low end chance of a few showers and thunderstorms north of this
boundary. Heading into Wednesday this boundary will mostly wash out,
but better forcing will arrive as a shortwave ejects from a trough
in the west into the area. This will keep the chance of showers and
thunderstorms going, with 15-30 PoPs across the area. Model
soundings show good instability and sufficient wind shear to support
a low end severe threat, but the highest threat will likely remain
west of the area.

The western trough will move into the northern Plains Thursday, with
a sharp shortwave rounding the base of this trough. This will
greatly increase wind shear and lift Thursday, but will also send a
strong cold front into the region. Much more widespread
precipitation is expected to develop with scattered to numerous
thunderstorms. This is most likely the best chance for severe
weather during the next week. Some lingering showers could
continue into Friday before we get another break from the action.

Cooler and drier weather will settle into the area by later Friday
and Saturday. Heading into Sunday and Monday ensemble guidance
indicates another weather system could impact the area, bringing a
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A saturated layer near the ground ahead of a front, along with
light winds and clearing skies in the wake of earlier rain and
storms, will yield areas of dense fog developing tonight across
portions of E OK and NW AR. For this forecast, went more
aggressive in showing deteriorating conditions down to IFR or blo
in several locations. A return to VFR is expected by mid-morning
Monday as the fog burns off and some drier air moves in with the
front.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  57  85  64 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   81  58  87  63 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   82  59  85  66 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   79  53  85  61 /   0   0  10  30
FYV   76  54  83  61 /  10   0   0  10
BYV   76  53  83  60 /  10   0   0  10
MKO   79  56  83  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   77  54  83  62 /   0   0   0  20
F10   80  57  83  64 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   81  58  84  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ057-058-
     060>074.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-
     010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30