Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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825 FXUS64 KTSA 261458 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 958 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today) Issued at 957 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 The morning round of thunderstorms has made steady eastward progress except in portions of southeast Oklahoma, where the east-west orientation has led to multiple rounds of storms. Overall, this southern part of the line is expected to continue to shift the northeast through the morning and into the early afternoon, with potential for continued development within an increasing low level jet and an increase in severity as instability recovers some. Farther to the west, mid to late afternoon development along the dryline into northeast and east central Oklahoma looks increasingly likely, which would pose a threat for tornadoes, very large hail and damaging wind given forecast soundings and hodographs. The expectation is for a decrease in coverage during the evening, with waning instability. Adjustments have been made mainly to POPs and Weather types, according to current trends and also to increase things farther west given the dryline expectations. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 During the day Saturday an unusually deep surface low will rapidly strengthen across western Kansas, reinvigorating the southerly flow with impressive instability and wind shear developing. EPS EFI for both Cape-Shear and QPF has values of 0.7 to 0.8 over the area. EPS moisture values will again be near and above the 99th percentile for EPS climatology for the date.The general details paint a picture of a higher end severe weather day. Storms will likely develop along the dry line as a shortwave ejects eastwards, with tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind all possible (10-30% chance within 25 miles of any given point). A strengthening LLJ in the evening will help to prolong storm activity. Storms will gradually transition into a line of very heavy rainfall, with some some model guidance showing several inches of rain being possible in spots. The SPC has maintained an enhanced risk for Saturday with WPC showing a moderate risk of excessive rainfall leading to flooding Saturday into Sunday. Details on the exact locations and timing will presumably come into better focus over the next 24 hours so stay tuned. Heavy rainfall will translate eastwards Sunday before moving out of the area. A short break from the stormy weather is expected, but additional rain and thunder chances will move back into the area early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Line of storms moving across NE OK and possibly NW AR later this morning to bring reduced flight conditions in the near term. After the morning round, some isolated to widely scattered storms are expected to develop this afternoon. With coverage still looking on the lower side, elected to use VCTS for the E OK sites, and PROB30s for the NW AR sites to cover. After this round of storms, expected much of tonight to be quiet. After a period of VFR conditions this evening, MVFR cigs are expected to return late tonight with LLWS conditions over in NW AR. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 81 68 80 62 / 30 10 70 90 FSM 76 67 82 66 / 100 40 70 60 MLC 77 67 80 64 / 90 20 70 80 BVO 82 64 80 60 / 30 10 70 90 FYV 73 63 79 63 / 90 40 60 60 BYV 73 64 80 63 / 100 40 50 50 MKO 76 66 80 62 / 80 20 60 80 MIO 75 66 81 62 / 50 20 60 80 F10 78 66 79 62 / 30 10 70 90 HHW 75 66 80 64 / 80 30 70 70 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...30