Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 251402
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
602 AM AKDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
An active pattern will continue for northern Alaska for the next
few days.

Aloft, at 500 mb, the strong southerly flow aloft over the Alaska
Range and the Interior will continue to diminish today. A 506 dam
low over St. Lawrence Island will persist today before moving
over the Chukotsk Peninsula on Thursday. This low will continue to
very slowly move to the north through the weekend, reaching
Wrangel Island by Sunday. Several shortwaves will spin around
this low over the next few days.

At the surface, a 974 mb low over St. Lawrence Island will remain
in place today, although it will weaken to 990 mb by late this
evening. Tonight this low will start to move to the north and by
Thursday afternoon will be located over the northern Chukotsk
Peninsula. A 996 mb low moving east in the Bering Sea will move
to just north of St. Matthew Island by Thursday afternoon and to
the Yukon Delta by early Friday morning. A 996 mb low just south
of Barter Island will move into the Mackenzie Delta by this
evening and will continue moving off to the east tonight. A trough
of low pressure will persist on the north side of the Alaska
range into Friday; however, the pressure gradient across the range
is expected to decrease today and will continue to decrease
tomorrow.

North Slope and Brooks Range: A front will continue to move to the
to the north today. 1 to 2 inches of snowfall is possible with the
front as it moves to the north. This warm front will also result
in high temperatures several degrees warmer than yesterday along
the coast. Areas along the coast east of Deadhorse may see some
rain or freezing rain mixed in with the snow. Southerly gap winds
will return to the Brooks Range tomorrow night with gusts up to 40
mph possible.

West Coast and Western Interior: Unsettled weather will continue
today into the weekend. A number of shortwaves will rotate around
the low that will remain in place out in the Bering Sea. This
will bring scatted showers to much of the west coast and western
interior for the remainder of the workweek. The precipitation
type today will predominately be rain. Tonight snow will begin to
mix in with any rain showers and tomorrow the low will bring
colder air into the region resulting in the dominant precipitation
type being snow. A more organized system will bring more
widespread precipitation at some point on Saturday; however the
models still disagree on the exact details of this. The low will
bring gusty winds today, particularly along the coast where gusts
up to 40 mph are possible.

Central and Eastern Interior: Isolated to scatted showers expected
through through Friday as several shortwaves pass over the
Interior. The predominant precipitation type will be rain during
the day with a mixture of rain and snow overnight. Winds have come
down in the Alaska Range; however southerly gap winds with gusts
to around 40 mph are expected today in passes. Southerly gap
winds will continue through Friday; however they will gradually
decrease in magnitude.The summits north of Fairbanks will see
gusty winds as well with wind gusts up to 40 mph possible.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southerly gap winds with gusts to around 40 mph are expected today
near Alaska Range passes. Southerly gap winds will continue
through Friday; however they will gradually decrease in
magnitude. Minimum relative humidity values in zone 223 will drop
into the upper 20s to lower 30s today and tomorrow.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ220-AKZ221.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

APR 18


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