Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 201918
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
318 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary slips south across the area tonight,
then returns as a warm front Monday night. A more pronounced
cold front will cross the area Wednesday...then A period of dry
weather is expected Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 240 PM EDT Sunday...

Other than a narrow band of SHRAS extending from just off VA
Beach to Bertie Co NC (and an ISOLD pop up invof Chesterfield Co
VA)...a much nicer afternoon across the local area as at least
periods of sunshine have returned. Despite SW winds...gusty at
times to 20-25 mph...dew points have not lowered too much...mainly
remaining from the u60s-70s (as temperatures have climed back
into the 80s).

A weak frontal boundary w/ limited support aloft will be slipping
SE through the local area tonight. Expecting additional/SCT
SHRAS-tstms to develop over NNW areas early this eve which move
ESE overnight. Will have PoPs 20-40% along w/ VRB clouds-
becoming mostly cloudy. Winds will turn from WSW to N after
midnight/late. Lows mainly 65-70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Sunday...

On Mon, will see some weak onshore NE flow develop for awhile
along the coast. By aftn as the flow aloft shifts from the W to
the WSW...expecting increasing moisture ahead of the next
approaching systems from the S and W. Partly sunny-mostly
cloudy w/ PoPs by afternoon rising to 30-50% (far) WSW tier
counties...while remaining aob 15% toward the ern shore. Highs
in the 70s at the coast to the l80s inland.

Warm front pulls N of the region Mon night (w/ possible SCT
SHRAS-tstms)...and will have 30-50% PoPs all areas. Sfc hi pres
off the SE CONUS coast remains in control Tue while lo pres and
its accompanying cold front tracks through the Midwest-OH
Valley. VRB clouds-partly sunny Tue w/ mainly diurnal PoPs
(20-40%) (Tue) ahead of that system, but PoPs have been
increased later in the day NNW locations. Lows Mon night in the
u50s-l60s on the lower MD ern shore to the m60s elsewhere. Highs
Tue from the m-u70s at the coast to 80-85F inland.

A more pronounced cold front crosses the area (late) Tue night
through Wed accompanied by at least SCT SHRAS/tstms. Will have
PoPs mainly 30-40%...w/ highs from the 70s-around 80F at the
coast to the m80s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Any lingering showers/t-storms move south of the area by Thursday
morning as a cold front passes through VA and NC. Behind the
cold front, sfc high pressure settles into the Mid-Atlantic
region Thu-Fri. This will give us a short break from the rain.
Moisture starts to stream northward next weekend as southerly
flow returns to the region. Therefore, rain is in the forecast
from Saturday afternoon through the remainder of the weekend.
Expect isolated-scattered afternoon showers/t-storms on
Saturday with more widespread showers/t-storms returning Sunday
through Memorial Day. Currently have slight chc PoPs Sat PM-Sun
AM with PoPs increasing to ~40% Sunday afternoon through Monday.

Highs in the low 80s inland/upper 70s in coastal areas on Thursday.
Warmer with highs in the mid-upper 80s expected Friday through
Sunday. Lows in the low-mid 60s on Fri/Sat morning increasing to ~70
on Sun/Mon AM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday...

A narrow band of SHRAS was found from near coastal SE VA SW to
just NW of the wrn tip of the Albemarle Sound attm. Otherwise
     SCT-BKN CU mainly 3-4kft over the local area w/ SW winds avgg
blo 15 kt. There will remain a 15-30% PoP in SE VA/NE NC into
ealry this evening. Another area of SCT SHRAS/tstms will be
possible as a weak frontal boundary drops tonight-early Mon.
Still not really expecting anything widespread but some brief
flight restrictions will be possible mainly from 00-06Z/21 N to
06-12Z/21 S. Went w/ lower end MVFR CIGS at all but SBY Mon
morning as winds turn NNE. A warm front lifts across the local
area Mon night-early Tue w/ potential SHRAS (ISOLD tstms) (PoP
20-50%) w/ possible lower CIGS. Aftn/evening showers/tstms
willpossible Tue through Wed. A moist airmass will remain over
the region and a potential will exist for patchy early morning
fog and/or stratus. High pressure may build in from the N by Thu
bringing mainly VFR conditions to end the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Will continue the Small Craft Advisory for the northern coastal
waters through this evening as seas are expected to remain at or
above 5 feet, especially out 20 nautical miles. Elsewhere, SW winds
are ranging from 10 to 15 knots this afternoon ahead of a frontal
boundary. The boundary will drop into northern portions of the
region tonight and slowly drops south through the day on Monday.
Winds become E/NE on Monday and are expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory criteria. Seas will range from 2 to 4 feet and waves
1 to 2 feet on Monday. The boundary moves back north of the region
Tuesday turning the winds back to the S/SW at around 5 to 15 knots
into Wednesday morning. Another cold front moves through the region
Wednesday turning the winds northerly Wednesday night into Thursday.
Winds and seas are generally expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory criteria through much of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 530 AM EDT Sunday...

Flood warnings have been cancelled for Bremo Bluff on the James
River, and Rawlings on the Nottoway River. Flood warnings continue
for the James and Appomattox River basins. Warnings also continue
for the Meherrin and Nottoway rivers (at Stony Creek), as well
as portions of the Chowan Basin. Additional flood warnings
continue for the Chickahominy, South Anna and Mattaponi rivers,
as well as the Pocomoke River in MD. See FLWAKQ or FLSAKQ for
more details.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...

* RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/19 is now 8.84" (already
  ranks as 5th wettest May on record). (precipitation records
  date back to 1880)

* SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/19 is now 8.51" (already
  ranks as 3rd wettest May on record). (precipitation records
  date back to 1906)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...ALB/LKB
MARINE...AJB
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



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