Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 210458
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1158 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 238 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2018

Southeast winds are a bit breezy, but should relax later this
evening.

Overnight, clouds will increase from west to east ahead of the
approaching 500mb trough. A substantial trough, latest trends
have it slowing its eastward advance overnight, which is typical for
these types of highly dynamic systems. This is good news for those
with early morning Saturday activities, as it brings a potential
delay to initial scattered rain showers in the morning. In
response, trended back precipitation chances after midnight,
confined west of the Kansas City Metro through 12Z (7 AM). After
sunrise, precipitation chances through most of the morning will be
for drizzle and scattered rain showers. Bufr profiles show a
delayed moistening through the low levels. Additionally, not
expecting any thunder with this activity and most rain will be off
and on for the KC metro through the morning. The best overall chance
for rain in the metro will be late morning through early afternoon.
Chances will then linger through the evening.

Temperatures will be cooler, behind the exiting 500mb trough, but
temperatures will rebound Sunday through early next week, with highs
in the mid to upper 60s by Monday and Tuesday. Some differences in
the long range, between solutions, but a general trend is for a
frontal boundary to push in from the northwest, bringing another
chance of rain Wednesday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2018

Ample dry air in the lower to mid-levels should minimize the
amount of precip able to reach the surface beginning Saturday
after sunrise, though a few sprinkles are possible through the
morning hours. Cloud bases will remain relatively high until
Saturday evening, at which point better chances for precip will
arrive through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Kurtz
Aviation...Welsh


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