290
FXUS64 KEWX 040556 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1256 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

We have allowed the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to expire. The lone
severe storm over northeast Edwards County is weakening as it moves
into a more stable area.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORMS...
Issued at 954 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

We have extended the Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM for all
counties in the watch but Val Verde. A severe storm in Kimble County
is moving slowly south and will move into portions of northwest Kerr
and northeast Edwards Counties over the next hour. Eventual
weakening should take place as the storm encounter increasing
convective inhibition.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Convection has begun northeast of Midland along the dryline and over
the mountains east of the Big Bend. This region will be active this
evening and some of these storms could move toward the east into our
CWA. There is a Tornado Watch in effect north of our CWA. We have
chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening, mainly across
the northern counties. There is a chance that some storms could be
strong to severe with very large hail the primary threat and
damaging wind gusts and tornadoes also possible. Convection should
dissipate after midnight. Saturday will be mainly dry. Winds will
shift toward the east early and then back southeast during the
afternoon. This should result in less cloud cover leading to warmer
temperatures over most of the CWA. A cold front will drop through
north TX during the day. Convection will initiate along this front
and move southward toward our area. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon becoming likely in
the evening. SPC has our CWA north and west of the Coastal Plains in
the Marginal Risk area for this time. All severe threats are
possible. At this time the best timing for storms is late evening to
early overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Rain chances may be ongoing over South Central Texas Sunday morning
and continue through the afternoon hours associated with a departing
shortwave trough. Models hint that a complex of thunderstorms will
move through part of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning,
with some lingering unorganized showers and thunderstorms remaining
into the afternoon. With increasing destabilization through the day,
there could be an isolated threat for a severe storm or two over the
area Sunday afternoon but confidence is too low for any specifics at
this point. PoPs should taper off Sunday evening with drier
conditions returning to the forecast the rest of the week. That
said, moisture in the low to mid levels lingers on Monday and a few
showers would not be out of the question over the Hill Country or
portions of the I-35 corridor. Zonal flow returns over the area on
Tuesday, with upper flow becoming southwesterly mid to late week as
troughing develops over the northern Plains. At the surface, South
Central Texas will heat up Tuesday trough Thursday with the hottest
temperatures expected along the Rio Grande. In the west, triple
digit heat seems likely while the rest of the area stays in the
upper 80s and 90s. Elevated humidity continues east of the dryline
mid to late week which could push some locations over the I-35
corridor and Coastal Plains into triple digit heat indices. A slight
cool down along and low end precipitation chances return Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Cirrus shield from earlier convection continues to move eastward as
low clouds expand westward. We have made minor adjustments to the
forecast over the next few hours as upper level clouds may delay the
onset of IFR along the I-35 corridor. Otherwise, no significant
changes have been made through the overnight hours with IFR cigs and
patchy fog developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  69  82  71 /  20  70  60  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  85  68  82  70 /  10  60  60  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  71  84  71 /  10  60  50  20
Burnet Muni Airport            82  67  80  70 /  30  70  60  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           91  72  87  74 /  30  70  50  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        83  67  80  69 /  30  70  60  20
Hondo Muni Airport             88  69  83  70 /  20  70  60  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  69  83  70 /  10  60  60  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   85  72  82  72 /  10  40  50  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       86  71  83  72 /  10  60  50  20
Stinson Muni Airport           89  72  85  73 /  10  60  60  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...18
Aviation...Platt