Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
221
FXUS62 KFFC 251126
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
726 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 331 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...

Tropical airmass continues over the CWFA through the short term
period of the forecast. The main weather hazard would be localized
flooding with heavy rain. Even though plenty of fuel exists for
thunderstorms, severe weather is not anticipated at this time.
However, a few strong storms are possible.

Synoptic pattern remains favorable for deep tropical moisture to
keep pushing northward from the GOMEX through tomorrow. Analysis
shows that PWATS have increased to near 2SD above normal this
morning (close to 1.8"). Values are expected to increase slightly
through the period. The highest QPF values through tonight are
expected across the southern third of the CWFA. However, even
showers will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall in this
atmosphere, so will leave the Flood Watch as is for now. Not
comfortable expanding it into Saturday at this time, but additional
watches in the long term portion of the forecast are likely.

The HRRR seems to be currently be struggling with the precip
breaking out across the eastern portions of the CWFA. The locally
run WRF does have a better handle on the situation and have trending
pops accordingly for today and tonight. Not confident on pop
placement for Saturday. Haven`t made changes to the short term
blend for this period.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

Although the GFS has continued to trend closer to the more westerly
ECMWF and NAM solution concerning the potential tropical system in
the Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week, there still
remains plenty of variation amongst the medium range models through
the extended forecast period. However, all of the model solutions
point to a continued period of fairly wet weather for the region.
Models all continue to drift the weak tropical low northward into the
eastern gulf initially but begin diverging with respect to strength
and movement through the weekend and into early next week. Ultimate
disposition of this system still very uncertain, but the forecast
area should see precipitable water values well above seasonal normals
through the period with good chances for precipitation every day.

All-in-all, with the varied model solutions and no clear favorite
emerging just yet, I have based the extended forecast grids on
blended model data.

20



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Any lingering IFR cigs should dissipate by late morning. Late
morning to early afternoon, MVFR cigs will be likely. Widespread
035 to 040 cigs expected during the mid to late afternoon. SHRA
will be possibly at any time, but should be more widespread after
17Z-18Z. Thunder is most likely during the late afternoon. models
have backed off of the LIFR cigs overnight. Do think some patchy
IFR cigs are possible though. Winds should remain on the east
side, but vrb expected overnight.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          78  67  83  66 /  70  70  50  40
Atlanta         79  68  82  67 /  60  50  50  50
Blairsville     76  63  79  63 /  50  60  60  50
Cartersville    82  67  84  66 /  40  50  60  50
Columbus        83  70  85  68 /  60  50  50  40
Gainesville     76  67  80  66 /  60  60  60  50
Macon           81  68  84  67 /  70  60  50  30
Rome            84  68  85  66 /  40  30  60  50
Peachtree City  80  67  83  66 /  60  50  50  40
Vidalia         84  70  85  69 /  60  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...
Carroll...Chattahoochee...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...
Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...
Douglas...Emanuel...Fayette...Forsyth...Glascock...Greene...
Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...
Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...
Laurens...Lumpkin...Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...
Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...North
Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pickens...
Pike...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...
Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...
Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Upson...Walton...
Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...White...Wilcox...
Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NListemaa



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.