Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 222312
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
612 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Water vapor and upper air analysis indicates a bit of a "messy"
pattern across the CONUS. The pesky upper level low that has been
impacting the central U.S. past couple of days is currently along
MO/AR border and slowly shifting eastward. Another weak upper low
is located across the desert SW with yet another SW trof over Pac
NW. The later trof will become our next wx maker for Tue. Local
sat images reveal some CU over western CWA and thicker mid level
clouds over eastern CWA associated with remnant moisture/lift from
departing low.

Surface: 19Z sfc analysis indicates sfc ridge axis extending from
HLC to ODX northeastward toward Twin Cities. Temps have warmed
into the upper 50s to mid 60s, warmest over the SE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Rest of today into tonight: Quiet conditions continue this eve
and overnight. Pattern recognition could suggest some fog
potential tonight given lt winds and recent rainfall. However, Tds
are quite low and fog forecasting tools along with MOS guidance
keep potential very low. Lows tonight should fall to around 40 deg
with just some SCT mid level clds poss.

Monday: Should be a really nice day! Subtle height rises due to SW
ridging along with winds turning around to the S should allow for
high temps to rise into the upper 60s to low 70s. Steepening low
level lapse rates with daytime insolation and remnant moisture in
the H8-H7 layer beneath ridge axis should allow for some stratocu
by late AM. Lt winds, partly to mostly sunny skies and temps
actually a couple deg above normal will make for a great April
day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

The main forecast challenge in the extended revolves around POPs
associated with a series of shortwaves within amplifying NW flow.

Tue-Wed: The next chc for moisture arrives on Tue. The NAM
remains a strong/wet outlier compared to GFS/EC. Given the origin
of the disturbance and ensemble indications of it remaining a
mainly open wave, feel the NAM QPF output is way too high (i.e.
widespread 1"+). SREF guidance confirms this as all but 6 members
are around 0.40" or less. As far as timing goes, even the more
open solutions of the EC/GFS/GEFS have slowed the wave slightly,
so better chcs for precip to linger into Wed AM. Tue daytime hrs
look pretty wet with current timing. The builder gave me some
frozen precip in NW zones at times, likely due to influence from
the NAM. Decided to remove those mentions as have largely
discounted the NAM for now. Temps will be held down on Tue due to
clds/precip and going highs of low 50s to low 60s may be too high
(similar to 24 hrs ago). Wed temps will strongly depend on speed
of system with slower NAM in 40s vs upper 50s/low 60s from
EC/GFS/superblend.

Thu: Another clipper-like system and associated cold front will
move through the region on Thu. Once again, origin of disturbance
and lack of Gulf moisture suggest low QPF event. This will cause
yet another day of below normal temps. Again, think going temps
could be too warm given highly amplified, nearly meridional
mid/upper level flow.

Fri-Sat: Generally speaking, models are in agreement that main
trof axis will shift from the Miss. River Valley to the East
Coast during this time frame. This should allow for a warming
trend. In fact, both GFS and EC suggest near to above normal temps
heading into next weekend. This is the best signal I`ve seen in
quite some time for a nice weekend, temp wise. The biggest
differences are precip potential. GFS/GEFS brings in return
flow/moisture so quickly that they generate sporadic QPF on Sat.
EC/Canadian are slower with return flow and keep conditions dry.
Prefer drier solution given fast GFS/GEFS bias and removed POPs in
this timeframe per coordination w/ surrounding offices.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Winds will
generally be light out of the east/ southeast with some mid and
high cloud mixed in.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thies
SHORT TERM...Thies
LONG TERM...Thies
AVIATION...Beda



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