Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 210800
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
400 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push slowly east across the Great Lakes
region through Sunday. This will provide for dry conditions and
slightly below normal temperatures through the weekend. An
upper level low pressure system moving out of the Mississippi
Valley will bring a chance of showers for the start of the work
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure will shift slowly east across the southern
Great Lakes through this afternoon as mid level ridging begins
to break down aloft. This will allow for a fair amount of mainly
high level moisture to drift east across the region through
this afternoon. Across at least northern portions of our area,
it looks like it may be opaque enough to lead to skies becoming
mostly cloudy, with more of a partly sunny across our southern
areas. Low level thermal fields will be a tad warmer than what
we saw on Friday, but these will likely be countered somewhat by
the increasing high clouds. As a result, expect highs once
again in the upper 50s to lower 60s with perhaps some mid 60s
across the south where they should see the most sunshine.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The mid level ridging will continue to weaken tonight into
Sunday with weak pieces of mid level energy pushing east across
the region overnight. This will help keep a fair amount of
mainly high level cloudiness in place across our area. An upper
level low will begin to slowly lift out of the lower
Mississippi Valley through the day on Sunday, but with still
some weak mid level riding hanging on across our area, dry
conditions will prevail through the day. Lows tonight will be in
the upper 30s to lower 40s with highs on Sunday in the low to
mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sunday night an upper level low will be located near Arkansas and be
mostly cut off from the main flow. The vertically stacked low will
slowly push northeast with light rain moving into the area Monday
evening. GFS forecast soundings are not to impressive, with mainly
light rain and cool weather expected. The low will then remain quasi-
stationary over the area Tuesday as an upper level disturbance over
Canada remains to far north to pick the low up.

By Wednesday the upper level disturbance over Canada will push far
enough south to help pull the low northeast and out of the area. The
latest run of the 00z models this morning are in general agreement
with a slightly further north track of the low compared to the 12z
model runs (except the CMC), so have nudged the chance of
precipitation further north.

Wednesday night into Thursday models begin to quickly diverge as
each handles the ejection of the aforementioned low differently.
Both the GFS and ECMWF dive a secondary upper level shortwave
southeast out of Canada, but the GFS is much stronger with the
shortwave and even wrap it up into a closed low. The ECMWF keeps the
wave open. For now have split the difference between the models
given the wide range of uncertainty. By the end of the extended a
more potent upper level disturbance will dive south pushing a cold
front through the region. Both the ECMWF and GFS have the front
pushing through the area Friday or Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will remain across the southern Great
Lakes through tonight. High and mid level clouds will spread
down across the area through the day but VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will be possible Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ062-063-071-
     072-078>082-088.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ064-065-073-
     074.
KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ097>100.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Haines
AVIATION...JGL



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