Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 221119 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
619 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

The rapid refresh models continue to advertise a few hours of fog
this morning which lifts by 10 am. The daytime heating cycle will
then cause skies to cloud up in the afternoon and then clear out
tonight.

The density of fog this morning is uncertain but there is potential
for a few areas of dense fog as h850mb winds become weak near 5 kt
but the moisture could be too deep with a stratus deck in place.

The temperature forecast today and tonight uses blended guidance
plus bias correction for highs in the 50s to lower 60s with lows in
the 30s. This strategy produced highs warmer than the rapid refresh
models but not as warm as the straight guidance blend which is
appropriate for mostly sunny skies. H850mb temperatures rise several
degrees today and continue warming tonight ahead of a cold front
progged to move through Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Shortwave ridging aloft will be in place Monday ahead of the next
upper low which will be digging southeast into the northern rockies.
A thermal ridge will also be in place ahead of the approaching upper
low and associated cold front which will be moving into central
Wyoming by Monday evening. Expect a mild day Monday, with highs in
the 60s. These warmer temperatures will be short lived as the cold
front and upper low drop southeast across the area Monday night into
Tuesday. The ECMWF and NAM models continues to drop the upper low
southeast across the high plains, with continued potential for some
decent QPF. The GFS continues to maintain a more northern track
across SD and northern NE. The NAM model coming into line with the
ECMWF has added a bit more confidence to the precipitation forecast
Monday night through Tuesday. Will maintain the likely pops Monday
night for the initial mid level warm air advection surge, and raise
pops a little for Tuesday as it appears the southern track of the
system across our immediate area is gaining model support. GEFS mean
QPF for the system is about 0.25 to 0.40 across the forecast area.
ECMWF highest across the north with 0.75 inches, and the NAM with
well over one inch of precipitation. So this system does have the
potential to produce some decent amounts of precipitation, with most
of it falling in the form of rain. NAM does indicate potential for
some wet snow, but feel this model is too high/heavy with it`s QPF
and over does it on the dynamic cooling and changing over to snow.

The rest of the week, Wednesday and beyond, looks rather cool as
fast northwest flow continues aloft. A disturbance drops southward
from Alberta Thursday with an associated cold front and a few
light showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

MVFR/IFR cigs and vsby along and west of highway 83 this morning improve
to VFR 15z-17z. VFR is expected all areas thereafter through
Monday morning.

Deep low pressure across srn Canada will set up southwest winds
today which should draw the low level moisture and cloudiness
northeast of wrn/ncntl Neb by early this evening. Generally clear
skies are expected tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...CDC



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