151
FXUS64 KLUB 040825
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
325 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Our active first week of May continues today with more chances
for severe thunderstorms, albeit not quite as potent as recent
days thanks to a cold front that will slow south of our area this
afternoon. This front at 2 AM was making good progress through the
northern TX Panhandle and is slated to enter our northern zones
around 5 AM before clearing our southernmost counties before noon.
Models have come into better agreement with the front slowing
along I20 early this afternoon which would afford us a break from
the most intense convection. Still, consensus is for a layer of
modest elevated CAPE to linger across much of our domain with
upwards of 1500 J/kg grazing our far southern tier of counties
where some SBCAPE is also apparent at times.

Widespread stratus and cool temps north of the front won`t be a
deterrent for storms today given the available elevated ascent
and instability. Combined with effective shear around 40 knots and
improving ascent courtesy of a mid-level shortwave trough and
upper jetlet, the stage should be primed for surface-based
supercells initially near the front across the Permian Basin. With
time, these storms should exhibit some splitting behavior owing
to linear hodographs. Any of these left movers would be fair game
to drift northeast into our southern zones with additional
elevated storms likely flourishing by late afternoon and evening
as upper ascent peaks ahead of the aforementioned impulse. Hail is
the main threat for us in this setup, though even this threat is
looking less as models have trended farther south with the front
and lower with our instability.

NBM`s PoPs were adjusted lower this morning during FROPA to better
reflect the drier model consensus, before ramping up later this
afternoon and evening. The NBM still looks too generous with precip
chances after midnight in the wake of the upper impulse, so PoPs
were given a military grade haircut to account for this pronounced
subsidence. No changes were necessary to temps today or tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

After a few lingering showers off the Caprock Sunday morning, the
remainder of the day is shaping up dry under rising heights in SW
flow. However, this subsidence won`t extend to the surface where
moist upslope winds will likely maintain low clouds for most of
the day. Some clearing near the TX-NM border late in the afternoon
could push highs there to nearly 80 while the remainder of the
area holds in the 70s for highs.

Monday remains the most dynamic day next week as the base of a
negatively-tilted trough ejects across Colorado and western KS by
late morning. This early passage of the trough will kick the dryline
off the Caprock by midday and perhaps east of the 100th Meridian if
the global model consensus is right. Opted to keep NBM`s low PoPs in
our eastern zones through the afternoon as post-dryline winds have
diminished considerably in recent model runs due to a northward
shift and overall weakening trend of the surface low in the central
plains. The upper pattern becomes less amplified by midweek as a
stacked upper low sits over the northern plains. As this low phases
with new energy feeding into the backside of a broad trough, the
result will be a southward shift to the elongated upper trough
complete with a healthy cold front for our area o/a Thursday. This
front looks too moisture starved for precip, but should end our
otherwise very mild stretch of highs in the 80s/90s from Monday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

FROPA remains on track from 11-13Z ahead of persistent MVFR
ceilings and gusty N winds. TS potential is looking quite low for
most of the day until after 5 PM or so and mainly at LBB where the
northern fringes of TS could impact the terminal. Confidence in
this scenario is too low for a mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93