Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 251110
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals for most of today. North to northeast winds of
15 to 30 mph and gusty are expected through the morning with
gradually diminishing winds this afternoon and this evening. VFR
conditions are expected to return by late this afternoon and
continue tonight with light winds. There is some chance for
showers and thunderstorms at the west Texas terminals this
morning but confidence was not high enough to include at this
time. Will continue to monitor.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/

DISCUSSION...
NW flow aloft persists and in the wake of a strong cold front this
morning much cooler wx is expected. MSLP gradients are tight and
windy-very windy conditions will not abate until mid/late morning.
Wind advisory conditions may briefly occur across the PB, but
with such short duration we will not expand NPW. Post-frontal
isentropic lift 300-305K layer will transition to descent around
18Z with low clouds slowly clearly nw-se after 18Z. TSRA have
been on the decrease across the far e CWFA and mostly light precip
in assocn with isentropic lift is possible til around 18Z, some
TSRA is still possible across the s between 12Z-18Z. Depending on
the timing of when the clouds lift some areas of the PB will not
get out of the 50s today! NAM12 forecast sounding is about 5
degrees cooler than MOS, making Thur AM another cool one, U30s-
M40s. Yet another shrtwv trof in nw flow aloft Thur PM will drive
a cold front (dry) into the PB/SE NM late Thur afternoon. After a
warm-up on Thur high temps will fall back in M70s (below normal)
Fri. Sat mid-level flow pattern begins to transition back to sw
and by Sun PM a dryline will develop and storms will possibly
initiate along/near dryline SE NM/W-NW PB. More of the same Mon-
Tue, but with stronger sw flow aloft the dryline will be farther e
each day and by Tue any storms would be most favored across the
far e. On Wed there are indications of a deep low to the w, but
differences in how far s it will be.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     59  44  79  49 /  40   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       64  46  82  49 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         69  50  81  56 /  50   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  57  47  81  51 /  40   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 54  47  79  49 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          61  41  78  44 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          59  40  81  46 /  20   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           58  44  80  49 /  30   0   0   0
Odessa                         59  44  80  49 /  30   0   0   0
Wink                           61  44  82  50 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory until noon MDT today for Central Lea County-Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern
     Lea County-Southern Lea County.

TX...High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/12



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