Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 230202
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1002 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Tonight...Showers and isolated thunderstorms have significantly
diminished since late afternoon, however, isolated heavy showers
will still push northward tonight, steered by mid-level flow, while
showers move onshore in weaker SE flow along a frontal boundary
draped across the FL peninsula. While models favor the downward
trend in coverage, have kept PoPs at 30-40% for marine showers
advancing onshore and along the boundary moving inland from the west
coast. Breezy easterly flow has shifted southeast and will continue
to veer south by sunrise, contributing to lower precip chances. Warm
and humid night, with low temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Monday...(prev discussion) Dawdling mid-upper level low over the
mid- MS Valley will sluggishly make its way east toward the TN/OH
valleys late in the day. Attendant surface trough/very weak front
will move across the area through the afternoon and early evening.
Given the northward advection of very high PWAT air ahead of it,
coupled with a modest increase in upper divergence and perhaps a
diffuse attempt at a WCSB, fully expect another afternoon with
widespread coverage of showers along with scattered TS. Frequent
C/G lightning, locally gusty winds and torrential rainfall will
accompany this activity. Max temps in the 80-85F range.

&&


.AVIATION...Frontal boundary draped across the FL peninsula has
pushed moisture well inland, contributing to BKN/OVC skies for
most interior terminals. Tonight, expect mostly VFR with
occasional MVFR cigs developing in northern coastal terminals
(KDAB/KTIX) and pushing inland from KSFB TO KISM. Showers on the
downtrend, but keeping VCSH for coastal terminals through
overnight hours for marine showers advancing onshore.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Monday...(prev discussion) Wave model guidance shows good
continuity with the previous forecast of winds and seas gradually
veering to SE late tonight and southerly by Monday afternoon.
Wind/seas gradually abate to 15-20KT by late tonight, and about
12-15KT Monday afternoon as the surface pressure gradient
gradually loosens. SCA conditions will ease near the coast by late
this evening, and offshore by mid morning Monday. Seas 6-8FT
early tonight, subsiding to 4-6FT Monday afternoon.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  80  67  83 /  50  80  40  60
MCO  67  84  68  85 /  40  70  40  60
MLB  70  82  68  84 /  40  80  50  70
VRB  70  82  68  83 /  50  80  60  70
LEE  68  84  68  84 /  40  60  40  60
SFB  66  83  67  85 /  40  70  40  60
ORL  68  84  68  85 /  40  70  40  60
FPR  70  82  69  83 /  50  80  60  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line
     to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to
     Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Smith
IMPACT WX....Spratt



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