Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 250944
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
444 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...
A complex of thunderstorms will continue to dive south near and
east of the I-35 corridor through early this morning. This
complex will continue to weaken over central and east central OK
as the sun rises. A few showers and storms, however, will remain
possible until early this afternoon especially over northern, eastern
and southeastern OK. Later this afternoon, moderate instability
will develop along and west of the I-35 corridor. Surface
convergence is expected over north northwestern OK near a low and
the intersection of stalled frontal boundary, a diffuse dryline,
and outflow boundary. With steep lapse rates and sufficient deep
layer shear in place, initially expect some large hail before the
sun sets. Most trends suggest tonight`s complex will dive south
very close to the I-35 corridor, with a damaging wind threat
possible over central OK, including the OKC metro, around 03-09Z.
The complex will dissipate towards Sat AM as it moves into the Red
River.

Saturday still appears dry, humid, and hot as a mid to upper ridge
moves over the Southern Plains. Slightly cooler conditions, but
still well above average, are expected Mon and Tue as the ridge
slowly shifts eastward. Shower and thunderstorm chances will also
return to northwestern and northern OK Mon and Tue with an upper
trough traversing the Rockies. Isolated storms will also be
possible along a dryline across western OK and western north TX
Tue afternoon and evening, and could make a run into portions of
central OK. There might be a chance for showers and storms across
extreme northern OK as a mid level shortwave trough tops the
ridge, but for now have kept the forecast dry since mid level
moisture appears limited. Hot conditions are expected by late
next week into next weekend, as significant positive height
anomalies move overhead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  71  96  70 /  30  60  10   0
Hobart OK         98  69 100  70 /  40  30   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  96  72 100  72 /  20  30   0   0
Gage OK           97  65 100  68 /  20  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     92  68  95  68 /  30  30  10   0
Durant OK         91  71  95  70 /  20  50  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/03



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