Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 240748
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
248 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Mid level ridging and high pressure will keep our area dry again
today, with convection expected off to our south and west. Will
keep an eye on the Ozark Foothill region. It`s not out of the
question isolated convection could make it that far east today.
The ridge will break down tonight through Friday. This combined
with return flow, and a weak mid level trof forming over the
region, will result in a return chance of showers and storms
Friday through Saturday. Temperatures will remain above normal
without any significant airmass change. Just an uptick in dew
points. Followed MOS and persistence.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

The extended period continues to be a challenge due to an incoming
tropical system. All of the extended model data suggests the
development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico by late in
the weekend. As this system moves north, there are a number of
possibilities of the track it will take. Once it makes landfall,
model continue to have difficulties determining the path, whether it
is straight north into our area or more of an easterly track.

This will be a prolonged period of possible unsettled weather for
Sunday through early next week. Not a wash out by any means but
scattered, mainly daytime, shower and thunderstorm chances will be
with us for the majority of this time frame. The best chances for
convection on Sunday and Monday will be over western KY, where the
better moisture looks to reside. Typical summertime temperatures
will be with us for the extended with highs in the upper 80s and
with dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees, making for
muggy conditions.

While severe weather is not in the offing right now, folks with
outdoor plans for the holiday weekend should be keeping up with the
latest forecast as even regular thunderstorm always pose a threat
with deadly lightning, sudden gusty winds and torrential downpours.
Any organized severe weather threat would be determined later in
time, once the path of this eventual tropical system becomes
established.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Brief MVFR vsbys possible early this morning. Otherwise VFR
through tonight with light ENE winds.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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