Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 270237
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1037 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A southern system grazes southern and eastern portions of the
area the area into Friday morning. Cold fronts cross Friday
night and Saturday. High pressure Sunday into mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1035 PM Thursday...

Forecast on track, as renegade echoes pushing northwestward
into interior WV are eroded by low level dry air.

As of 800 PM Thursday...

Satellite imagery snows nice comma head cloud pattern over the
area, with stacked low pressure centered just to the south. Light
rain WAS over southwest VA, and the coal fields of southern WV.
The forecast was on track, barring minor adjustments made here
and there.

As of 130 PM Thursday...

An opening upper level low will pass south and east of the
forecast area tonight. We are already seeing cirrus on the
increase ahead of this with the first radar echos crossing
eastern TN into southwestern VA. Expect precipitation to be
confined to mainly the eastern half of the forecast area
overnight, with the highest confidence of measurable rainfall
across the mountains where a tenth to a quarter of an inch is
expected. Nothing significant or concerning when it comes to
flood thread.

Light rain across the northern mountains should linger until
just after sunrise Friday before tapering off. Another weaker
upper trough crosses the Great Lakes Friday afternoon. Models
keep most precipitation associated with this feature north of
the forecast area, but did go with some slight chance to chance
POPs across our SE Ohio and northern WV zones as both GFS and
ECMWF show a decent vort max crossing this area Friday
afternoon.

Blended ECMWF MOS guidance into previous high and low forecasts,
resulting in only a degree or two change here and there, so
nothing significantly different from previous forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Thursday...

Unsettled weather continues in the short term period as an upper
low, and several upper disturbances affect the area.
Precipitation will gradually taper off late Saturday night or
early Sunday, with enough cold air filtering into the region
that precipitation will turn over to snow across the higher
terrain. No accumulation is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM Thursday...

High pressure will build across the area Sunday. May even see
areas of frost Monday morning across the area. Temperatures will
gradually warm as the week progresses, as upper ridging takes
hold across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 PM Thursday...

A low pressure system passing south and east of the area
overnight into Friday, will bring rain from the southern coal
fields northeastward, through the central Appalachians. This
will bring MVFR ceilings and visibilities overnight into Friday
morning, with IFR possible in the mountains toward dawn Friday.

The cloud shield associated with this system should prevent fog
from forming across the middle Ohio Valley for most of the
night. Coded IFR fog PKB and MVFR mist HTS toward dawn Friday
although only MET guidance supports this.

Drier air moving in from the west will clear out any fog west
and rain east Friday morning, yielding VFR conditions for the
midday and afternoon hours Friday.

An upper level trough moving into the middle Ohio Valley will
help to create some afternoon instability there on Friday,
resulting in isolated to scattered showers, but the chance for
thunder is forecast to remain to the north, over the upper Ohio
Valley.

Light and variable flow surface and aloft, except light north
to northwest in the mountains, overnight, will become light west
to southwest by Friday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions in clouds and rain may
vary overnight into Friday morning. Fog could be more dense
than currently forecast overnight into Friday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 04/27/18
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible Saturday into Saturday night following a cold
frontal passage, mainly in the mountains, where snow showers
are possible overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM



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