Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1153 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2019

...SEASONALLY AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH APRIL...

This is the seventh, and last, in the series of regularly
scheduled hydrologic outlooks issued during the Winter and Spring
season. This outlook is designed to provide a general overview of
river flood potential (not flash flooding) across Central New York
and Northeast Pennsylvania for the next two weeks...April 4th
through 18th.

...SUMMARY...

The flood potential across the major basins of central New York
and northeast Pennsylvania for the next two weeks is average for
April.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...

.CHEMUNG BASIN...
.Precipitation (past 14 days): Much below normal.
.Snow Cover: None.
.Snow Water Equivalent: None.
.14-Day Average Streamflow: Normal to below.
.Ground State: Very wet.

.NORTH BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA BASIN (NY)...
.Precipitation (past 14 days): Below normal.
.Snow Cover: Sparse at higher elevations.
.Snow Water Equivalent: Minimal.
.14-Day Average Streamflow: Normal
.Ground State: Very wet.

.UPPER MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA BASIN (PA)...
.Precipitation (past 14 days): Below normal.
.Snow Cover: None.
.Snow Water Equivalent: None.
.14-day Average Streamflow: Normal
.Ground State: Very wet.

.UPPER DELAWARE BASIN...
.Precipitation (past 14 days): Much below normal.
.Snow Cover: Sparse in higher elevations.
.Snow Water Equivalent: Minimal.
.14-Day Avg. Streamflow: Normal.
.Reservoir Levels: Near normal pools.
.Ground State: Very wet.

.OSWEGO BASIN / FINGER LAKES / WESTERN MOHAWK...
.Precipitation (past 14 days): Much below normal.
.Snow Cover: Patchy around the Southern Tug Hill.
.Snow Water Equivalent: Isolated 1 to 3 inches near Tug Hill.
.14-Day Average Streamflow: Normal.
.Lake Levels: Normal pools.
.Ground State: Wet.

...FORECAST OUTLOOK...

.FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS: The official 6 to 14 day outlook
calls for a colder and wetter than average period. Long range
ensemble guidance differs by indicating generally near to above
average temperatures during the next two weeks. A period of
storminess during the first week appears in agreement, with
generally normal amounts of forecast precipitation during the
second week. Medium range deterministic models do suggest several
areas of low pressure moving through the Northeast, but no solid
signals for an excessive rainfall at this time.

.LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS: The
ensemble of river forecast systems indicated a 10 to 30 percent
chance of minor flooding at several stream gauges during the next
7 to 10 days, particularly focused early during the week of April
8th to 12th. When comparing current hydrologic forecast
statistics against historical flows through the end of April,
nearly all basins indicated a below average risk for seasonal
flooding. The only basin to indicate a near equal risk of
flooding, when compared to historical trends, was the Neversink
basin in the Upper Delaware.

Given the variable antecedent conditions and future rainfall
forecasts, the outlook for flooding is about average for this time
of year.

...IN CONCLUSION...

This outlook estimates the potential for river and lake flooding
based on a current overview of hydro-meteorological factors which
contribute to flooding.

It is important to note that significant flooding does not occur
from snow melt alone. Rainfall, how much and in how short a
period of time, is the most important factor in determining the
severity of flooding. Specific forecasts of heavy rainfall and
flash flooding are not included in this outlook.

This will be the last seasonal Flood Outlook until January 2020.
If conditions change in the interim: Flood Watches, Warnings or
Advisories will be issued as necessary.

$$

JAB


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