Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
139 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2019

...MAINLY AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL EXPECTED THROUGH MARCH 21st...

This is the fifth in the series of regularly scheduled hydrologic
outlooks issued during the Winter and Spring season. This outlook
is designed to provide a generalized assessment of river flood
potential (not flash flooding) across Central New York and
Northeast Pennsylvania for the next two weeks...March 7th through
March 21st.

...FLOOD RISK SUMMARY...

There is a seasonally average risk for Spring flooding across the
major basins of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania for
the next two weeks.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS...

-CHEMUNG BASIN-
.Precipitation (past 14 days)...Below normal.
.Snow Cover...Above normal
.Snow Water Equivalent...Normal
.14-Day Average Streamflow...Normal
.River Ice...Areas of thin cover.
.Ground State...Saturated. Partially frozen.

-NORTH BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA BASIN (NY)-
.Precipitation (past 14 days)...Below normal.
.Snow Cover...Above normal
.Water Equivalent...Normal
.14-Day Average Streamflow...Normal
.River Ice...Limited to none.
.Ground State... Saturated. Partially Frozen.

-UPPER MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA BASIN (PA)-
.Precipitation (past 14 days)...Below normal.
.Snow Cover...Above normal.
.Water Equivalent...Normal.
.Monthly Average Streamflow...Normal
.River Ice...Limited to none.
.Ground State...Saturated. Partially frozen.

-UPPER DELAWARE BASIN-
.Precipitation (past 14 days)...Below normal.
.Snow Cover...Above normal.
.Water Equivalent...Below normal.
.14-Day Avg. Streamflow...Mostly normal.
.River Ice...Limited to none.
.Lake Levels...Above normal pools.
.Ground State...Saturated. Partially frozen.

-OSWEGO BASIN / FINGER LAKES / WESTERN MOHAWK-
.Precipitation (past 14 days)...Below normal.
Snow Cover...Above normal.
.Water Equivalent...Below normal.
.14-Day Average Streamflow...Normal.
.River Ice...Limited to none.
.Lake Levels...Normal pools.
.Ground State...Saturated. Partially frozen.

...FORECAST OUTLOOK...

.FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS: The official 6 to 14 day outlook
calls for milder and wetter than average for mid-March.

Long range ensemble model guidance suggested above average
precipitation during the first week with a tendency toward average
the second week. Temperature trends suggested normal to above
normal temperatures in week one, followed by colder conditions in
week two. Two precipitation events were noted with one arriving
between March 9-10, followed by a second between the 14th-16th.
Marginal temperatures during the first storm should prevent
significant runoff. The second system looks milder and will have
to be monitored closely.

.LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS: The
ensemble of river forecast systems indicated a less than 10
percent chance of flooding during the next 10-14 days.

When comparing current hydrologic forecast statistics against
historical flows, the characteristics in most basins were
consistent with an average risk of flooding.

...IN CONCLUSION...

This outlook estimates the potential for river and lake flooding
based on a current overview of hydro-meteorological factors which
contribute to flooding.

It is important to note that moderate to major flooding does not
occur from snow melt alone. Rainfall, how much and in how short a
period of time, is the most important factor in determining the
severity of flooding. Specific forecasts of heavy rainfall and
flash flooding are not included in this outlook.

The next Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by this
office in one week, March 14, 2019. If conditions change in the
interim: Flood Watches, Warnings or Advisories will be issued as
necessary.

$$

JAB


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