Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-
115-139-163-177-183-ILC011-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-155-161-177-
187-195-MOC045-199-151800-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
606 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Probabilistic Outlook...

This outlook provides long-range probabilistic river outlooks for
river basins in the NWS Quad Cities service area. This outlook is
divided into three parts, the first part for the probabilities of
minor, moderate and major flooding, the second part for high water
and the final part for low water.

In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor, moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  05/27/2019 - 08/25/2019

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Mississippi River
Dubuque LD11        16.0   17.0   20.5 : >95    8  >95   <5   26   <5
Dubuque             17.0   18.0   21.5 : >95   12  >95    8   31   <5
Bellevue LD12       17.0   18.0   20.0 : >95    7  >95    5   22   <5
Fulton LD13         16.0   18.0   20.0 : >95   13  >95    6   41   <5
Camanche            17.0   18.5   20.5 : >95   12  >95    6   41   <5
Le Claire LD14      11.0   12.0   13.5 : >95   13  >95    6   86    5
Rock Island LD15    15.0   16.0   18.0 : >95   21  >95   17  >95    6
Ill. City LD16      15.0   16.0   18.0 : >95   19  >95   12  >95    6
Muscatine           16.0   18.0   20.0 : >95   21  >95   13  >95    6
New Boston LD17     15.0   16.5   18.5 : >95   26  >95   17  >95    6
Keithsburg          14.0   15.5   17.0 : >95   28  >95   15  >95    6
Gladstone LD18      10.0   12.0   14.0 : >95   26  >95   11  >95    6
Burlington          15.0   16.5   18.0 : >95   23  >95   12  >95    6
Keokuk LD19         16.0   17.5   19.0 : >95   12  >95    9  >95    6
Gregory Landing     15.0   18.0   25.0 : >95   35  >95   10   18   <5

:Maquoketa River
Manchester Hwy 20   14.0   17.0   20.0 :  43   24   19   13    9    7
Maquoketa           24.0   26.0   28.5 :  26   11   22    9   11    7

:Wapsipinicon River
Independence        12.0   13.0   15.0 :  18    9    9    8    7    6
Anamosa Shaw Rd     14.5   18.0   21.5 : >95   18   20    9   <5   <5
De Witt 4S          11.0   11.5   12.5 : >95   63  >95   53  >95   36

:North Skunk River
Sigourney           16.0   18.0   21.0 : >95   40  >95   27   22   10

:Skunk River
Augusta             15.0   17.0   20.0 : >95   49  >95   37   72   19

:Cedar River
Vinton              15.0   18.0   19.0 :  28   12    6   <5   <5   <5
Palo Blairs Ferry   12.5   15.5   17.0 :  41   18    7   <5   <5   <5
Cedar Rapids        12.0   14.0   16.0 :  49   20   28   15   15    7
Cedar Bluff         16.0   20.0   26.0 :  42   17   10    6   <5   <5
Conesville          13.0   15.0   16.5 : >95   36   47   16   11    6

:Iowa River
Marengo             15.0   17.0   19.0 : >95   56  >95   42   26   14
Iowa City           23.5   24.5   26.0 :  19   <5   13   <5   <5   <5
Lone Tree           16.0   18.5   22.0 :  35   14   14    9   <5   <5
Columbus Jct        23.0   25.0   26.5 :  27    9   11   <5    6   <5
Wapello             21.0   25.0   27.5 : >95   20   13    7    5   <5
Oakville            11.0   15.0   20.0 : >95   17   11    6   <5   <5

:English River
Kalona              14.0   16.0   18.0 : >95   38   42   27   15    9

:Des Moines River
Keosauqua           22.0   25.0   27.0 :  44   14   23    9   19    8
St Francisville     18.0   22.0   25.0 : >95   28   39   14   21    8

:Fox River
Wayland             15.0   18.0   20.0 :  36   27   15   14   <5   <5

:Pecatonica River
Freeport            13.0   14.0   16.0 :  50   27   28   18   17    9

:Rock River
Como                12.5   15.5   18.0 :  37   17   20    8    7   <5
Joslin              12.0   14.0   16.5 : >95   28   47   21   25   13
Moline              12.0   13.0   14.0 : >95   30   55   18   39   17

:Green River
Geneseo             15.0   16.5   18.0 :  24   <5   15   <5    9   <5

:La Moine River
Colmar              20.0   22.0   24.0 : >95   50  >95   34   36   19

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
ft = Feet


In Table 2 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (ft) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 05/27/2019 - 08/25/2019
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Dubuque LD11         18.6   18.6   18.6   19.0   20.6   22.6   24.5
Dubuque              20.3   20.3   20.4   20.7   22.4   24.6   26.2
Bellevue LD12        18.2   18.2   18.3   18.6   19.9   21.6   23.1
Fulton LD13          18.9   18.9   19.0   19.5   20.9   23.5   25.2
Camanche             19.4   19.4   19.5   20.0   21.5   24.1   25.7
Le Claire LD14       13.5   13.5   13.6   14.0   15.1   17.4   19.0
Rock Island LD15     18.6   18.7   18.8   19.2   20.7   22.8   24.3
Ill. City LD16       18.8   18.8   19.0   19.4   21.6   24.4   25.9
Muscatine            20.6   20.7   20.8   21.2   23.2   25.5   26.9
New Boston LD17      20.0   20.0   20.2   20.6   22.1   24.2   25.7
Keithsburg           18.3   18.4   18.5   18.8   20.2   21.8   23.8
Gladstone LD18       15.1   15.1   15.2   15.7   17.3   19.1   21.3
Burlington           19.3   19.3   19.4   19.9   21.8   23.4   25.2
Keokuk LD19          20.3   20.4   20.7   21.5   23.4   25.6   26.4
Gregory Landing      21.7   21.7   22.0   22.9   24.5   26.4   27.1

:Maquoketa River
Manchester Hwy 20     9.2    9.2    9.6   13.0   16.3   19.1   22.5
Maquoketa            18.2   18.3   18.4   20.0   24.5   28.8   30.9

:Wapsipinicon River
Independence          9.4    9.4    9.5    9.9   11.2   12.7   16.6
Anamosa Shaw Rd      14.5   14.6   14.6   15.0   16.9   19.8   21.2
De Witt 4S           13.0   13.0   13.1   13.2   13.5   13.8   14.1

:North Skunk River
Sigourney            18.7   18.7   18.8   19.1   20.5   22.7   24.5

:Skunk River
Augusta              19.9   19.9   20.0   20.3   21.9   23.2   24.2

:Cedar River
Vinton               12.2   12.2   12.3   12.9   15.2   17.1   18.2
Palo Blairs Ferry    11.3   11.3   11.4   11.9   13.5   14.9   15.8
Cedar Rapids         10.9   11.0   11.1   12.0   14.6   16.9   18.7
Cedar Bluff          14.8   14.8   14.9   15.6   18.0   20.0   21.9
Conesville           14.7   14.7   14.8   14.9   15.8   16.5   17.1

:Iowa River
Marengo              17.9   17.9   18.0   18.2   19.1   19.5   20.0
Iowa City            17.8   17.9   18.0   19.4   22.7   25.0   25.6
Lone Tree            12.5   12.5   12.9   14.5   17.1   19.4   20.4
Columbus Jct         20.6   20.6   20.7   21.3   23.1   25.1   27.1
Wapello              21.8   21.8   21.9   22.3   23.8   25.7   27.9
Oakville             11.5   11.5   11.6   11.9   13.3   15.2   17.3

:English River
Kalona               15.2   15.2   15.3   15.6   17.0   19.8   20.7

:Des Moines River
Keosauqua            19.3   19.5   20.0   21.3   24.4   29.1   31.8
St Francisville      18.3   18.5   19.4   20.7   24.2   26.9   29.2

:Fox River
Wayland              12.1   12.1   12.2   13.0   16.6   18.6   19.4

:Pecatonica River
Freeport             11.5   11.5   11.8   13.0   14.7   16.7   17.0

:Rock River
Como                  8.8    8.8    9.0   10.2   13.9   17.1   18.6
Joslin               12.1   12.1   12.2   13.6   16.4   19.7   19.9
Moline               12.2   12.3   12.3   13.2   15.0   17.6   18.4

:Green River
Geneseo              11.2   11.2   11.4   12.2   14.8   17.8   20.0

:La Moine River
Colmar               22.6   22.6   22.7   22.9   24.7   25.5   26.5


In Table 3 below, the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (ft) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Non-Exceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 05/27/2019 - 08/25/2019
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Dubuque LD11          7.7    6.9    6.4    5.5    4.9    4.7    4.6
Dubuque              10.0    9.3    8.8    8.2    7.8    7.7    7.6
Bellevue LD12         8.7    7.9    7.1    5.5    4.7    4.4    4.2
Fulton LD13           8.5    7.7    6.7    5.2    4.8    4.7    4.6
Camanche             11.0   10.4    9.8    9.3    9.1    8.9    8.9
Le Claire LD14        6.7    6.1    5.6    5.0    4.8    4.7    4.6
Rock Island LD15      9.1    8.1    6.8    5.7    5.2    4.9    4.6
Ill. City LD16        7.5    6.5    5.4    4.5    4.2    3.9    3.7
Muscatine             9.3    8.1    7.3    6.6    6.4    6.3    6.1
New Boston LD17       9.2    7.8    6.3    4.8    4.3    4.0    3.7
Keithsburg           10.6    9.0    7.7    6.7    6.1    5.9    5.7
Gladstone LD18        6.2    4.3    3.2    2.4    1.8    1.6    1.3
Burlington           11.7   10.3    9.3    8.5    8.2    8.0    7.9
Keokuk LD19           9.3    7.6    6.3    5.3    4.6    3.5    3.1
Gregory Landing      10.8    9.0    7.5    6.9    6.6    6.4    6.3

:Maquoketa River
Manchester Hwy 20     4.3    4.2    4.1    4.0    4.0    3.9    3.9
Maquoketa            11.2   11.1   11.0   10.7   10.5   10.4   10.2

:Wapsipinicon River
Independence          5.3    5.2    5.0    4.8    4.7    4.6    4.6
Anamosa Shaw Rd       6.1    5.7    5.5    5.1    5.0    4.9    4.8
De Witt 4S            6.7    6.6    6.0    5.8    5.5    5.3    5.2

:North Skunk River
Sigourney             5.2    5.1    4.8    4.6    4.5    4.4    4.4

:Skunk River
Augusta               3.0    2.7    2.3    2.1    1.9    1.8    1.7

:Cedar River
Vinton                4.5    3.9    3.4    3.0    2.8    2.6    2.5
Palo Blairs Ferry     4.9    4.4    3.8    3.5    3.3    3.1    3.0
Cedar Rapids          5.2    4.9    4.6    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.1
Cedar Bluff           5.9    5.2    4.8    4.6    4.3    4.2    4.1
Conesville            8.0    7.2    6.8    6.6    6.4    6.2    6.0

:Iowa River
Marengo               9.0    8.2    7.9    7.6    7.3    7.1    7.0
Iowa City            11.3   11.3   11.0   10.7   10.4   10.2   10.1
Lone Tree             9.4    9.2    5.9    5.3    5.0    4.8    4.7
Columbus Jct         12.8   12.5   11.5   10.2    9.9    9.6    9.5
Wapello              15.5   14.9   14.1   12.8   12.4   12.1   12.0
Oakville              5.3    4.7    4.1    2.9    2.5    2.2    2.1

:English River
Kalona                4.8    4.7    4.4    4.2    4.1    4.1    4.0

:Des Moines River
Keosauqua            16.1   15.9   15.7   11.9   11.1   10.8   10.8
St Francisville      14.5   14.4   14.0    9.5    7.9    7.4    7.3

:Fox River
Wayland               1.9    1.8    1.7    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.5

:Pecatonica River
Freeport              5.6    5.4    5.0    4.7    4.3    4.1    3.9

:Rock River
Como                  4.8    4.6    4.3    4.0    3.7    3.6    3.5
Joslin                6.8    6.5    6.1    5.6    5.3    5.0    5.0
Moline                8.7    8.6    8.4    8.3    8.1    8.0    8.0

:Green River
Geneseo               4.1    4.0    3.8    3.6    3.3    3.3    3.2

:La Moine River
Colmar                4.3    3.9    3.4    3.1    3.0    2.8    2.7

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data, including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site at http://www.weather.gov/dvn for more weather and
water information.

The next outlook will be issued near the end of June.

$$

Brooks





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