Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FGUS73 KICT 232059
ESFICT
KSC001-009-015-017-021-035-053-079-095-099-111-115-125-133-155-159-
167-169-173-191-205-242100-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
357 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2019

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  05/23/2019 - 08/21/2019

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Arkansas River
Great Bend          12.0   16.0   18.0 :  16   <5    5   <5   <5   <5
Hutchinson           8.0   13.0   19.0 : >95    6    7   <5   <5   <5
Haven               10.0   11.0   12.0 : >95    8  >95    6  >95    5
Derby               12.0   15.0   16.2 : >95    7   21   <5   12   <5
Mulvane             16.5   19.0   21.0 : >95    7  >95   <5   14   <5
Oxford              17.0   20.0   23.0 : >95    9  >95   <5   <5   <5
Arkansas City       11.0   17.0   21.0 : >95   36  >95    7    9   <5
:Walnut Creek
Albert              24.0   25.0   25.7 :  30   <5   20   <5   <5   <5
:Cow Creek
Lyons               18.0   22.0   24.7 : >95   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hutchinson           9.5   10.5   12.5 :  55   18   33   <5   <5   <5
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills          22.0   25.0   27.0 : >95   15  >95   10    5   <5
Halstead            25.0   27.0   29.0 : >95   11  >95    7   <5   <5
Sedgwick            22.0   25.0   26.0 : >95   10   19   <5   14   <5
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th    18.0   22.0   24.0 :  36   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock              8.0   10.0   12.0 :  54    9    9   <5   <5   <5
:Ninnescah River
Peck                17.0   21.0   26.0 :  22   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Belle Plaine        23.0   24.5   26.0 : >95   <5  >95   <5    7   <5
:Whitewater River
Towanda             22.0   25.0   28.0 :  37   15   22    9    7   <5
Augusta             21.0   25.0   30.0 :  21   12   13    7    6   <5
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado           21.0   22.0   24.0 :  11   12    9   10    6    8
:Walnut River
El Dorado           19.0   23.0   25.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Augusta             23.0   28.0   36.0 :  36   10    7   <5   <5   <5
Winfield            18.0   22.0   29.0 : >95   22  >95   17  >95    9
Arkansas City       18.0   22.0   28.0 : >95   13  >95   <5   <5   <5
:Chikaskia River
Corbin              10.0   19.0   28.0 :  67   24    5   <5   <5   <5
:Fall River
Fredonia            17.0   27.0   36.0 :  48   34   15    9   <5   <5
:Verdigris River
Altoona             19.0   21.0   26.0 : >95   21    8    6   <5   <5
Independence        30.0   47.6   53.0 : >95   36   <5   <5   <5   <5
Coffeyville         18.0   23.0   26.5 : >95   23  >95    7   <5   <5
:Cottonwood River
Florence            22.0   27.0   32.0 :  40   25   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cottonwood Falls     9.0   11.0   18.0 : >95   31  >95   20   <5   <5
Plymouth            32.0   34.0   37.0 : >95   29   47   11   22   <5
:Neosho River
Iola                15.0   21.0   27.0 : >95   36   71    8   22   <5
Chanute             23.0   28.5   35.0 : >95   46  >95   24   <5   <5
Erie                29.0   32.0   36.0 : >95   48  >95   37  >95   20
Parsons             21.0   23.0   32.0 : >95   56  >95   50   <5   <5
Oswego              17.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   54  >95   41  >95    8
:Salt Creek
Barnard             21.0   23.3   24.9 : >98   14  >98   12   <5   <5
:Saline River
Lincoln             30.0   36.0   38.5 : >98   41   27    9   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg           21.0   29.0   33.9 : >98   19    7   <5   <5   <5
Mentor              20.0   24.0   28.0 : >98   15    7   <5   <5   <5
:Mulberry Creek
Salina              24.0   26.0   27.4 : >98   34  >98   32  >98   31
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria         27.0   30.0   33.1 : >98   26  >98   16   18    9
Russell             18.0   20.0   38.0 :  22    5   11    5   <5   <5
Ellsworth           20.0   24.0   27.0 :  27   12   11    7   <5   <5
:Saline River
Russell             18.0   20.0   23.0 :  10    6    7    5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 05/23/2019 - 08/21/2019
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Arkansas River
Great Bend           10.9   10.9   10.9   10.9   10.9   12.9   16.0
Hutchinson            9.6    9.6    9.6    9.6   10.4   11.6   14.7
Haven                12.3   12.3   12.3   12.3   12.9   13.7   14.7
Derby                14.5   14.5   14.5   14.5   14.5   16.6   17.9
Mulvane              19.6   19.6   19.6   19.6   19.6   21.7   23.0
Oxford               21.1   21.1   21.1   21.1   21.1   22.0   22.4
Arkansas City        19.9   19.9   19.9   19.9   19.9   20.8   21.9
:Walnut Creek
Albert               21.3   21.3   21.3   21.3   24.8   25.4   25.5
:Cow Creek
Lyons                18.4   18.4   18.4   18.4   18.8   19.2   20.3
Hutchinson            2.6    4.4    7.2   10.2   10.7   11.4   11.9
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills           25.0   25.0   25.0   25.0   25.5   26.3   27.1
Halstead             27.0   27.0   27.0   27.0   27.0   27.8   28.7
Sedgwick             24.0   24.0   24.0   24.0   24.1   26.8   27.8
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th     15.6   15.6   15.6   16.7   19.1   19.9   20.4
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock               7.4    7.4    7.4    8.1    9.2    9.9   10.6
:Ninnescah River
Peck                 15.3   15.3   15.3   15.3   16.7   18.4   20.1
Belle Plaine         26.0   26.0   26.0   26.0   26.0   26.0   26.1
:Whitewater River
Towanda              14.0   14.0   14.0   19.3   24.6   27.3   28.9
Augusta              18.8   18.8   18.8   18.8   18.9   27.1   30.8
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado             9.4    9.4    9.4   12.6   16.9   21.4   25.7
:Walnut River
El Dorado             9.2    9.6   10.3   12.4   15.1   17.3   19.5
Augusta              17.5   17.5   19.4   21.1   24.6   27.4   28.6
Winfield             32.8   32.8   32.8   32.8   32.8   33.5   35.3
Arkansas City        24.4   24.4   24.4   25.7   25.7   25.7   25.7
:Chikaskia River
Corbin                8.6    8.6    8.7   13.2   15.4   17.7   19.2
:Fall River
Fredonia             11.8   11.8   11.8   16.6   22.7   29.8   32.2
:Verdigris River
Altoona              19.2   19.2   19.2   19.2   19.6   20.7   21.8
Independence         40.7   40.7   40.7   40.7   40.7   41.1   42.8
Coffeyville          23.6   23.6   23.6   23.6   23.6   24.4   25.4
:Cottonwood River
Florence             18.1   18.1   18.1   19.5   26.1   26.6   26.8
Cottonwood Falls     11.8   11.8   11.8   11.8   12.7   14.2   15.3
Plymouth             33.7   33.7   33.7   33.7   36.6   39.8   42.4
:Neosho River
Iola                 20.9   20.9   20.9   21.5   26.1   31.6   33.8
Chanute              33.0   33.0   33.0   33.0   33.0   33.8   34.9
Erie                 38.9   38.9   38.9   38.9   39.0   40.1   41.8
Parsons              28.7   28.7   28.7   28.7   28.7   29.0   29.6
Oswego               26.1   26.1   26.1   26.1   26.1   26.5   27.1
:Salt Creek
Barnard              24.7   24.7   24.7   24.7   24.7   24.7   24.8
:Saline River
Lincoln              35.4   35.4   35.4   35.4   36.3   37.6   38.1
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg            23.7   23.7   23.7   23.7   23.7   26.2   30.7
Mentor               21.1   21.1   21.1   21.1   21.6   23.2   24.9
:Mulberry Creek
Salina               27.6   27.6   27.6   27.6   27.7   28.2   28.7
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria          32.5   32.5   32.5   32.5   32.5   33.9   34.4
Russell              15.6   15.6   15.6   15.6   16.6   20.6   25.3
Ellsworth            17.7   17.7   17.7   17.7   20.6   24.4   25.6
:Saline River
Russell              15.6   15.6   15.6   15.6   15.6   17.8   22.2

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 05/23/2019 - 08/21/2019
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Salt Creek
Barnard               7.6    6.4    5.9    5.5    5.3    5.3    5.2
:Saline River
Lincoln              20.6   19.1   16.9   15.9   15.3   14.8   14.5
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg            13.2    7.4    7.0    6.9    6.9    6.8    6.8
Mentor               10.3    4.8    4.2    4.1    4.0    4.0    3.9
:Mulberry Creek
Salina                4.9    4.6    4.5    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria          16.7   11.6   10.5    8.1    6.7    6.3    5.9
Russell               4.5    4.3    4.1    4.0    3.9    3.7    3.7
Ellsworth             2.3    1.8    1.6    1.4    1.0   -0.1   -1.0
:Saline River
Russell               5.5    4.6    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/ict for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued near the 25th of each month.

$$


JAS




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