Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1032 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2019

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 2...

This outlook applies to the Wichita Hydrologic Service area (HSA)
which includes the Arkansas River...Smoky Hill River...Verdigris
River and Neosho River and their tributaries in central...south
central and southeast Kansas.

...The risk for river flooding this Spring is above normal for basins
in central Kansas and the stretch of the Neosho River in southeast
KS. The remaining basins in south central and southeast KS will see a
near normal risk at NWS Wichita River Forecast Points...

Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give
advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil
moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook
is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Wichita Service
Area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation or
longer periods of excessive precipitation.

This outlook is valid from March 7th through March 21st, 2019.

The outlook is based on current climatological conditions. However,
heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding even when the
snowmelt flood potential is low. Convection, not snowmelt is often
the primary driver of spring flooding in the service area.

Over the last two weeks the HSA has experienced a series of winter
weather systems depositing snowfall across most of the area. The
recent snowfall on Sunday March 3rd provided snow water contents of
one-third of an inch or less across mainly central and south central
KS.

There is very little left of the snow from the recent storm this past
Sunday. Only a few trace amounts of snow is scattered across central
KS and a few areas in south central KS.

During most of this winter season, frozen soils have been minimal in
occurrence. But as of late over these last two weeks, soils have been
frozen to an extent averaging near 4 inches in depth.

Precipitation received over the last 3 months has mainly been above
normal across the majority of the service area. Percent of normal
values ranged from near normal to 200 percent of normal.

Over the last couple of weeks, precipitation has been above normal
over central KS and parts of south central KS. These areas received
near normal to near 300 percent of normal moisture. The remaining
areas saw below normal precipitation between 25 to 90 percent of
normal.

Below normal temperatures have dominated the region over the past two
weeks. Departure from normal temperatures have been 6 degrees below
normal in southeast KS to as much as 15 degrees below normal over
central KS.

Soil moisture levels continue to run above normal across eastern
Kansas.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor issued March 7, 2019 shows drought
conditions to be nonexistent over the HSA. The past 4 months have
been drought free. (http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu)

The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook
valid through end of May 2019, indicates no drought development
likely through this period across Kansas.

The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow conditions map
shows much above normal flows affecting mainly central KS. South
central and southeast KS are experiencing a mix of above normal to
near normal flows. (http://waterwatch.usgs.gov)

Kansas streams at risk of experiencing minor flooding this spring
include Mulberry, Salt and Cow Creeks, as well as Chikaskia River.
Moderate level flooding concerns are on the Saline and Smoky Hill
Rivers in central Kansas and the Neosho River in southeast Kansas.

Area reservoirs currently have almost all of their flood control
storage available for runoff from heavy rainfall events.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook for the 3 month period
April-May-June, is indicating equal chances of normal, above normal,
and below normal temperatures for the period. Probabilities are
slightly stronger for above normal precipitation across the service
area.

The 8-14 day CPC Outlook (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) shows very
strong probabilities of below normal temperatures. There are strong
probabilities of experiencing below normal precipitation.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/05/2019 - 06/03/2019

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Arkansas River
Great Bend          12.0   16.0   18.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hutchinson           8.0   13.0   19.0 :  17    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Haven               10.0   11.0   12.0 :  34    9   24    7   18   <5
Derby               12.0   15.0   16.2 :  23   10   14   <5   10   <5
Mulvane             16.5   19.0   21.0 :  24   12   21   <5   18   <5
Oxford              17.0   20.0   23.0 :  41   17   22    6   <5   <5
Arkansas City       11.0   17.0   21.0 :  54   35   16   11   <5   <5
:Walnut Creek
Albert              24.0   25.0   25.7 :  14   <5   10   <5   <5   <5
:Cow Creek
Lyons               18.0   22.0   24.7 :  32    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hutchinson           9.5   10.5   12.5 :  55   18   33   <5   <5   <5
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills          22.0   25.0   27.0 :  39   18   24   12   <5   <5
Halstead            25.0   27.0   29.0 :  30   13   16    8   <5   <5
Sedgwick            22.0   25.0   26.0 :  19   13   10    6    7   <5
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th    18.0   22.0   24.0 :  29   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock              8.0   10.0   12.0 :  35   14   12   <5   <5   <5
:Ninnescah River
Peck                17.0   21.0   26.0 :  25    6    5   <5   <5   <5
Belle Plaine        23.0   24.5   26.0 :  18    6   12   <5    7   <5
:Whitewater River
Towanda             22.0   25.0   28.0 :  30   13   16    8   <5   <5
Augusta             21.0   25.0   30.0 :  16    9    8    5   <5   <5
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado           21.0   22.0   24.0 :   6    7   <5    6   <5   <5
:Walnut River
El Dorado           19.0   23.0   25.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Augusta             23.0   28.0   36.0 :  15    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
Winfield            18.0   22.0   29.0 :  37   23   23   15    7    5
Arkansas City       18.0   22.0   28.0 :  21    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Chikaskia River
Corbin              10.0   19.0   28.0 :  69   40    8   <5   <5   <5
:Fall River
Fredonia            17.0   27.0   36.0 :  40   36   10    8   <5   <5
:Verdigris River
Altoona             19.0   21.0   26.0 :  26   25   <5    6   <5   <5
Independence        30.0   47.6   53.0 :  35   35   <5   <5   <5   <5
Coffeyville         18.0   23.0   26.5 :  24   25    7    6   <5   <5
:Cottonwood River
Florence            22.0   27.0   32.0 :  39   19   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cottonwood Falls     9.0   11.0   18.0 :  41   24   25   16   <5   <5
Plymouth            32.0   34.0   37.0 :  40   29   32   12   19   <5
:Neosho River
Iola                15.0   21.0   27.0 :  31   30   13   10    5   <5
Chanute             23.0   28.5   35.0 :  45   43   24   22    5   <5
Erie                29.0   32.0   36.0 :  50   43   37   33   20   20
Parsons             21.0   23.0   32.0 :  61   56   53   48   <5   <5
Oswego              17.0   20.0   25.0 :  62   54   53   40   13   11
:Salt Creek
Barnard             21.0   23.3   24.9 :  42   24   30   18   <5   <5
:Saline River
Lincoln             30.0   36.0   38.5 :  63   36   15    7   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg           21.0   29.0   33.9 :  43   32   10    6   <5   <5
Mentor              20.0   24.0   28.0 :  28   23    9   <5   <5   <5
:Mulberry Creek
Salina              24.0   26.0   27.4 :  52   38   40   35   30   26
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria         27.0   30.0   33.1 :  55   37   34   23   12    8
Russell             18.0   20.0   38.0 :  15    8    9    7   <5   <5
Ellsworth           20.0   24.0   27.0 :  22   11   11    6    5   <5
:Saline River
Russell             18.0   20.0   23.0 :  17    7   11    6   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/05/2019 - 06/03/2019
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Arkansas River
Great Bend            2.5    2.8    4.2    6.2    8.2   10.3   12.8
Hutchinson            2.5    2.8    3.7    5.2    6.8    9.3   12.3
Haven                 4.8    5.2    6.4    8.7   10.8   13.7   14.2
Derby                 3.0    4.2    5.9    8.2   11.3   16.4   17.1
Mulvane               8.0    9.2   10.9   12.8   15.8   28.1   30.3
Oxford                9.7   11.7   13.3   15.7   19.7   21.5   21.9
Arkansas City         5.6    7.7    8.9   11.4   15.1   18.4   19.2
:Walnut Creek
Albert               10.5   10.9   13.5   17.3   21.4   25.1   25.3
:Cow Creek
Lyons                11.6   12.1   15.1   17.5   18.2   18.8   19.7
Hutchinson            2.6    4.4    7.2   10.2   10.7   11.4   11.9
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills            8.3    9.8   15.7   19.8   24.9   26.4   26.7
Halstead             11.5   12.7   17.7   21.3   26.2   27.6   28.0
Sedgwick              7.4    9.1   12.8   15.6   20.2   25.0   26.9
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th      7.8   10.8   13.7   15.5   18.5   19.7   20.2
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock               4.2    4.9    5.5    6.6    9.0   10.2   10.8
:Ninnescah River
Peck                  4.9    6.6    8.6   12.3   17.1   19.9   21.2
Belle Plaine         11.7   13.2   15.2   18.7   21.3   25.2   26.9
:Whitewater River
Towanda               8.4    9.6   11.9   15.7   23.6   26.1   27.3
Augusta               7.8    8.3    9.4   11.3   16.7   24.0   28.3
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado             7.2    8.4    9.4   12.6   16.1   19.7   21.8
:Walnut River
El Dorado             3.1    3.7    4.4    9.4   11.7   13.5   14.6
Augusta               7.4    7.7    9.3   16.6   20.2   24.5   25.9
Winfield              5.9    7.3    9.4   15.1   21.2   27.6   30.7
Arkansas City         7.3    8.8    9.8   13.6   17.2   20.2   21.3
:Chikaskia River
Corbin                4.2    7.3    9.2   12.7   16.1   17.8   20.9
:Fall River
Fredonia              6.9    7.4   10.7   14.9   20.7   27.3   30.3
:Verdigris River
Altoona               7.0    8.6   11.2   15.9   19.2   20.4   20.9
Independence         11.0   12.1   18.6   24.3   34.4   38.6   40.8
Coffeyville           4.7    5.1    8.8   12.0   18.0   21.4   24.5
:Cottonwood River
Florence              4.8    6.7   10.1   19.8   25.3   26.4   26.7
Cottonwood Falls      2.4    3.3    4.9    8.0   11.1   13.9   14.4
Plymouth             10.3   13.2   19.1   29.7   36.0   38.5   39.5
:Neosho River
Iola                  9.1    9.6   10.1   11.8   16.2   22.4   27.1
Chanute              14.6   16.1   17.9   21.8   28.2   32.4   35.1
Erie                 18.6   20.3   22.5   29.1   34.9   38.8   43.0
Parsons              14.4   16.0   17.9   23.8   26.1   28.2   29.4
Oswego               10.8   11.3   13.2   20.9   23.1   25.5   26.9
:Salt Creek
Barnard              15.7   15.7   15.7   18.5   23.9   24.2   24.6
:Saline River
Lincoln              29.2   29.2   29.2   31.8   34.5   36.7   38.3
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg            17.0   17.0   17.8   19.5   24.4   29.2   30.4
Mentor               13.6   13.6   14.3   16.0   21.2   23.5   24.7
:Mulberry Creek
Salina               18.8   18.8   18.8   24.7   27.8   28.1   28.7
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria          26.3   26.3   26.3   28.7   30.7   33.7   34.6
Russell               9.2    9.2   10.2   14.0   16.9   19.4   25.6
Ellsworth             9.3    9.3    9.3   15.1   18.9   24.7   27.1
:Saline River
Russell               9.2    9.2   11.0   14.0   16.5   20.7   22.7

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Based upon the above information, there is an increased risk of
flooding this Spring Flood Season across the central Kansas Basins
and the Neosho River Basin in southeast KS while the remaining basins
in the Wichita Service Area can expect a near normal risk.

This will be the last Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook this
year.

Visit our home page at
www.weather.gov/wichita for more weather and flood information.

$$

Salazar







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