Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
000
FGUS73 KIND 072113
ESFIND
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-092115-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
413 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2019

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL AND MUCH OF
SOUTHERN INDIANA...

.Discussion...

The early spring flood potential outlook covering the months of
March, April and May for much of the White and Wabash River
basins in central and southern Indiana is above normal. This above
normal flood potential outlook means that above normal rainfall
combined with saturated soil conditions could lead to extensive
flooding across central and southern Indiana this spring.

As of March 7th, stream levels in central and southern Indiana were
generally near normal for this time of year. Fairly dry conditions
over the last two weeks have allowed stream levels to return to near
normal from much above normal during February.

Much of central and southern Indiana experienced extensive flooding
during the month of February with widespread minor flooding and
scattered moderate flooding. Soil conditions remain very saturated,
so any rainfall will lead to higher than normal runoff. Soil
moisture is expected to remain above normal through much of spring
which could lead to more frequent floods than normal.

Moderate to heavy rain is possible this weekend across central
Indiana with the heaviest rain potentially across southern Indiana.
This could lead to another round of flooding by next week.

The 6 to 10 day outlook from March 13th to March 17th indicates
above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. The 8 to
14 day outlook from March 15th through March 21st indicates below
normal precipitation and below normal temperatures across
Indiana. The three to four week outlook also indicates near normal
temperatures and below normal precipitation.

Anyone with interests in flood prone areas should remain alert to
changing weather conditions. Flood conditions can develop quickly
during the month of March. Many of the significant floods to strike
Indiana have occurred during March.

Additional statements will be issued as changing weather and river
conditions warrant.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available for
precipitation and temperatures forecasts and current soil moisture
data at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Current snowpack data are available
at www.nohrsc.noaa.gov. Current streamflow data are available at
waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/rt. Visit our home page at weather.gov/ind
for more weather and water information.

.Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by Flood Category...

In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS), or normal,
probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate, and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

  - CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
 based on current conditions.

  - HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
 based on historical, or normal, conditions.

  - When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower than
normal.

...Table 1 Probabilities for Minor, Moderate, and Major Flooding...
            Valid Period: 03/12/2019 - 06/10/2019

                                   : Current and Historical Chances
                                   : of Exceeding Flood Categories
                                   :       as a Percentage(%)
                    Categorical    :
                 Flood Stages (ft) :   Minor   Moderate    Major
Location       Minor  Mod   Major  :  CS   HS    CS  HS    CS HS
--------       ----- ------ ------ : ---   ---  ---  ---  --- ---
Big Blue River
Shelbyville    13.0   15.0   18.0     76   57   <5   54   <5   <5

Driftwood River
Edinburgh 2 SW 11.0   14.0   17.0     78   90   <5   52   <5   <5

Flatrock River
Columbus       11.0   15.0   17.0     77   57   <5   50   <5   <5

Muscatatuck River
Vernon         17.0   27.0   32.0     <5   56   <5   <5   <5   <5

East Fork White River
Columbus        9.0   14.0   16.0     76   59   <5   51   <5   <5
Rivervale      20.0   30.0   35.0     79   91   <5   53   <5   <5
Bedford        20.0   27.0   32.0     78   90   <5   53   <5   <5
Seymour        12.0   17.0   19.0     80   91   75   52   <5   <5
Shoals         20.0   25.0   30.0     77   59   <5   55   <5   51
Williams        8.0   14.0   19.0     80   90   <5   56   <5   <5

Eagle Creek
Zionsville      9.0   11.0   15.0     <5   58   <5   54   <5   <5

Eel River
Bowling Green  15.0   20.0   23.0     78   90   <5   52   <5   <5

White River
Anderson       10.0   15.0   18.0     76   59   <5   52   <5   <5
Eagle Valley  603.0  607.0  610.0     75   50   <5   50   <5   <5
Centerton      12.0   16.0   19.0     78   57   <5   51   <5   <5
Elliston       18.0   25.0   29.0     79   91   <5   52   <5   <5
Edwardsport    15.0   22.0   25.0     80   91   <5   52   <5   <5
Hazleton       16.0   24.0   28.0     80   91   75   54   <5   51
Indianapolis   16.0   20.0   22.0     <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Muncie          9.0   12.0   15.0     <5   53   <5   <5   <5   <5
Noblesville    14.0   19.0   21.0     77   57   <5   50   <5   <5
Nora           11.0   16.0   19.0     76   58   <5   <5   <5   <5
Newberry       13.0   19.0   24.0     80   91   <5   54   <5   <5
Petersburg     16.0   23.5   26.0     80   91   76   54   <5   51
Ravenswood      6.0   10.0   12.0     78   60   <5   51   <5   <5
Spencer        14.0   20.0   24.0     79   91   <5   53   <5   <5

Sugar Creek
Crawfordsville  8.0   10.0   14.0     <5   59   <5   55   <5   <5

Tippecanoe River
Delphi          8.0   12.0   15.0     77   58   <5   <5   <5   <5

Wildcat Creek
Lafayette      10.0   15.0   19.5     78   90   <5   58   <5   53

Wabash River
Covington      16.0   24.0   28.0     80   91   <5   52   <5   <5
Hutsonville    16.0   24.0   28.0     80   91   <5   52   <5   <5
Lafayette      11.0   18.0   26.0     81   92   75   54   <5   <5
Mount Carmel   19.0   25.0   32.0     80   91   76   55   <5   <5
Montezuma      14.0   24.0   30.0     81   92   <5   54   <5   <5
Riverton       15.0   22.0   26.0     80   91   75   54   <5   <5
Terre Haute    16.5   24.5   30.0     80   91   <5   52   <5   <5
Vincennes      16.0   22.0   28.0     79   91   <5   54   <5   <5

LEGEND:
    CS  =  Conditional Simulation (Outlook for current conditions)
    HS  =  Historical  Simulation ( "       "  normal  conditions)
    ft  =  Feet                   (above gage zero datum)


.Probabilities for Rising Above Listed River Stages...

...Table 2--Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook by River Stage...

               Valid Period:   03/12/2019 - 06/10/2019
               Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations

               95%   90%   75%   50%    25%    10%    5%
               ---   ---   ---   ---    ---    ---   ---
Big Blue River
Shelbyville    7.7   8.7   9.7   11.5   13.5   16.9  17.6

Driftwood River
Edinburgh      6.9   8.1   9.9   11.8   13.8   15.0  15.1

Flatrock River
Columbus       7.3   7.5   9.1   10.4   12.9   14.7  15.3

Muscatatuck River
Deputy        10.0  11.1  14.6   20.6   23.8   27.4  28.3

East Fork White River
Columbus       2.4   2.9   4.6    7.4    9.9   13.3  14.4
Rivervale     13.6  16.3  19.3   22.3   27.0   32.7  34.2
Bedford       12.6  15.1  17.6   20.0   24.6   30.4  31.3
Seymour        9.0  11.6  13.7   15.6   17.0   18.3  18.6
Shoals         7.9   9.9  12.8   15.8   22.8   28.9  31.5
Williams       5.1   6.1   7.4    8.4   12.2   17.4  18.4

Tippecanoe River
Delphi         4.9   6.0   6.5    7.5    9.0   11.3  11.9

Wabash River
Covington     14.8  16.2  19.2   20.6   23.2   25.0  26.3
Hutsonville   16.7  17.4  19.6   21.4   23.2   25.1  26.2
Lafayette     10.4  11.6  14.1   15.5   18.0   21.2  21.8
Mt. Carmel    15.3  17.1  21.2   24.0   27.4   29.7  31.6
Montezuma     14.8  16.7  19.5   21.6   23.9   25.4  28.4
Riverton      15.4  16.2  18.2   20.2   22.3   24.6  25.9
Terre Haute   16.3  17.4  20.1   22.1   24.3   25.8  27.0
Vincennes     12.8  13.5  16.7   19.5   21.5   24.7  26.1

Wildcat Creek
Lafayette      7.0   7.7   9.1   10.6   12.7   17.7  22.7

Eagle Creek
Zionsville     2.9   3.2   4.0    4.6    6.4   10.4  13.1

Eel River
Bowling Green 10.6  11.9  13.7   15.4   18.8   21.3  21.9

White River
Anderson       7.0   7.7   8.4    9.8   10.9   13.3  16.0
Eagle Valley 598.3 599.2 601.3  602.8  605.3  606.4 608.3
Centerton      5.6   6.7   9.7   11.6   14.6   15.6  16.9
Elliston      16.4  17.8  19.8   22.2   24.7   26.4  27.3
Edwardsport   13.9  16.0  17.3   19.1   21.7   24.1  24.4
Hazleton      14.6  17.8  20.2   21.9   24.8   27.9  29.0
Indianapolis   7.0   7.7   9.2   10.5   12.0   13.9  15.0
Muncie         5.9   6.2   6.6    7.3    8.0    9.6  10.3
Noblesville    8.3   9.4  10.5   13.0   15.6   17.9  19.0
Nora           6.0   7.0   8.3    9.8   12.1   15.0  15.9
Newberry       9.3  10.5  12.9   15.1   18.6   21.5  22.7
Petersburg    14.3  17.1  19.4   21.3   24.4   26.6  27.4
Ravenswood     2.6   3.6   4.8    5.9    7.4    9.6  10.2
Spencer        9.9  12.3  15.3   17.0   19.2   21.1  22.9

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range
planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts
are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service.


$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.