Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FGUS74 KJAN 071420
ESFJAN

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
8:30 AM CST THU MAR 07 2019

...Spring Flood Potential Outlook...

...Flood risk is ABOVE AVERAGE across the Ouachita/Black of Southeast
   Arkansas and Northeast Louisiana; In Mississippi: the Yazoo, Big
   Black, Homochitto, Pascagoula, Tombigbee, and the Mississippi River
   Basins ...

This outlook considers rainfall which has already fallen,
snowpack, soil moisture, streamflow, and the 90 day rainfall and
temperature outlook;however, the primary factor in the development
of significant river flooding across the WFO Jackson Forecast Area
is the occurrence of excessive rainfall in a relatively short period
of time.

SYNOPSIS...

Over the past several months...well above normal precipitation has
fallen over the Lower Mississippi and Lower Ohio River Valleys. The
Upper Mississippi River Valley has had significant snow this year.
Snow depths of 10 to 30 inches are confined to portions of
Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Snow water equivalents range from 2
to 8 inches over this area. Snow depths of less than 6 inches are
occurring over Missouri and North Arkansas extending east into the
Ohio Valley. The remainder of the area is snow free.

The Lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys have had 15 to
30 inches of rainfall over the past 3 months with 10 to 15 inches
occurring over the past 2 weeks.

Soil moisture conditions are generally well above normal over the
Lower Missouri, Middle/Lower Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys.

Across the Jackson Hydrologic Service (HSA) area for the past 30
days, rainfall has been between 150 to 300 percent of normal across
across our northern third. Most of our areas east of I-55 have had
100 to 200 percent of normal rainfall. Southern portions of
Northeast Louisiana, Southwest Mississippi and into the Metro
Jackson area have had 75 to 90 percent of normal rainfall.

Soil moisture is above normal across the region with the most
saturated areas north of I-20.

MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM ARKANSAS CITY TO NATCHEZ...

Major rises are occurring along the Lower Mississippi River with
moderate to major flooding occurring from Paducah, KY to Natchez,
MS. Cresting conditions are near Helena, AR.

The future rainfall over the next 16 days shows another crest in
late March which may approach the same levels as the current flood
event for the Lower Ohio and Lower Mississippi Rivers.

Since we have a significant snowpack on the Upper Mississippi River,
very wet soil moisture conditions, and elevated streamflow,
significant flooding will be possible with normal Spring rainfall.

See the chart below for specific locations showing percent of normal
streamflows:
                                             3/06
Mississippi River               Thebes IL    143%
Ohio River                       Cairo IL    253%
Mississippi River              Memphis TN    260%
Mississippi River            Vicksburg MS    252%
Mississippi River          Baton Rouge LA    220%
Atchafalaya River           Simmesport LA    231%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflow conditions, and normal
spring rainfall patterns; an ABOVE AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected
along the Lower Mississippi and Lower Ohio Rivers. The magnitude of
future crests will depend on the amount and extent of any upstream
accumulation of snow cover and resultant snowmelt; coupled with the
frequency, intensity, and extent of spring rains.


OUACHITA/BLACK BASINS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...

Streamflows and soil moisture content are well above seasonal averages.
Minor flooding is occurring in Arkansas and Louisiana. Over the next 7 Days,
new minor to moderate flooding is possible over Southeast Arkansas.

Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below:
                                             3/06
Bayou Bartholomew             Portland AR    612%
Bayou Bartholomew                Jones LA    281%
Tensas                          Tendal LA    228%
Bayou Macon                     Eudora AR    918%
Ouachita River                  Monroe LA    127%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an ABOVE AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected over the Ouachita and
Black River Basins. Note: The primary factor in the development of significant
river flooding across the WFO Jackson Forecast Area is the occurrence of
excessive rainfall in a relatively short period of time.


BIG BLACK AND HOMOCHITTO RIVER BASINS...

Soil moisture and streamflows are well above seasonal averages in the Big Black
River Basin. Minor to moderate flooding continues along the river. Rainfall over
the next 7 days may slow the recession or produce new rises. Soil moisture and
streamflows across the Homochitto River Basin are running near above normal.

Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below:
                                            3/06
Big Black River                  West MS    586%
Big Black River                Bovina MS    170%
Homochitto River               Rosetta MS   163%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an ABOVE AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected over the Big Black Basin
and the Homochitto Basin in Southwest Mississippi. Note: The primary factor in
the development of significant river flooding across the WFO Jackson Forecast
Area is the occurrence of excessive rainfall in a relatively short period of time.


YAZOO BASIN...

Over the past two weeks, 10 To 18 inches of rainfall caused significant river
flooding and flash flooding over the basin. Soil moisture and streamflows are
well above seasonal averages minor to moderate flooding continues over the basin.

Observed Daily Streamflows as a percent of normal:
                                             3/06
Tallahatchie                     Money MS    148%
Big Sunflower                Sunflower MS    622%

Percent of available flood control storage is given below.

                                            3/06
                       Arkabutla Res. MS     19%
                          Sardis Res. MS     34%
                            Enid Res. MS     33%
                         Grenada Res. MS     27%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an ABOVE AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected over the Yazoo River
Basin. Note: The primary factor in the development of significant
river flooding across the WFO Jackson Forecast Area is the occurrence of
excessive rainfall in a relatively short period of time.


PEARL RIVER BASIN...

Soil moisture content and streamflows are above seasonal averages. Minor
flooding is occurring at several locations. Observed daily streamflows as a
percent of median are given below.
                                             3/06
Pearl River                  Carthage MS     240%
Pearl River                  Jackson, MS     184%
Pearl River               Monticello, MS     203%
Pearl River                  Columbia MS     283%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an ABOVE AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected over the Pearl River
Basin. Note: The primary factor in the development of significant
river flooding across the WFO Jackson Forecast Area is the occurrence of
excessive rainfall in a relatively short period of time.


PASCAGOULA RIVER BASIN INCLUDING THE LEAF AND CHICKASAWHAY SUB-
BASINS...

Soil moisture is above seasonal levels and recent rainfall has caused streamflows
to rise above normal levels. No flooding is currently occurring.

Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below:
                                             3/06
Leaf River                    Collins MS     166%
Leaf River                Hattiesburg MS     164%
Tallahala Creek                Laurel MS     217%
Chickasawhay River        Enterprise  MS     152%
Black Creek                  Brooklyn MS     200%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal Spring rainfall
patterns; an ABOVE AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected over the Pascagoula River
Basin. Note: The primary factor in the development of significant
river flooding across the WFO Jackson Forecast Area is the occurrence of
excessive rainfall in a relatively short period of time.


TOMBIGBEE RIVER IN MISSISSIPPI...

Soil moisture contents and streamflows are running above normal across
the Tombigbee Basin in Mississippi. Minor flooding is occurring on the
Buttahatchie River just north of our HSA.

Observed daily streamflows as a percent of median are given below:

                                              3/06
Tombigbee River                Bigbee MS      131%
Buttahatchee River           Aberdeen MS      288%
Luxapallila Creek            Columbus MS      261%
Noxubee River                   Macon MS      261%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring rainfall
patterns; an ABOVE AVERAGE Flood Potential is expected across the
Tombigbee Basin. Note: The primary factor in the development of significant
river flooding across the WFO Jackson Forecast Area is the occurrence of
excessive rainfall in a relatively short period of time.


Extended Temperature and Precipitation Outlook...

The 8-14 day outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates
chances of above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation across
the HSA.

The 30-Day outlook indicates equal chances of above, normal,or above
normal temperatures. Precipitation chances will be above normal during this
period.

The 90-Day outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center indicates
chances of above normal temperatures and chances of above normal
precipitation.

This will be the last scheduled spring flood outlook for 2019.

$$
MVP


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