Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FGUS74 KMEG 072239 CCA
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ARC021-031-035-037-055-075-077-093-107-111-121-123-MOC069-155-
MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119-
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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
439 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2019

...Spring Flood Potential Outlook...

...FLOOD RISK IS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MID-SOUTH...

For the spring of 2019, the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center
is calling for much above average flood potential. Given that
spring is a historically active period for river flooding, this
outlook indicates that the Mid-South can expect to see the number
and magnitude of river floods to be higher than normal.

CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS...

SOIL MOISTURE.
Soil moisture values for the past month are above normal across
the entire Mid-South. The largest current departures from normal
are over west Tennessee, eastern Arkansas, and the Missouri
Bootheel. Current soil moisture is above the 90th percentile (top
10 percent of past values) over the Mid-South.

CLIMATE REGIME.
Despite experiencing a weak El Nino event, the winter weather
pattern has been quite active.  Weather systems have regularly
impacted the Mid-South.  During January and February, several of
these systems brought multi-inch rains to the area.

SNOWPACK.
The latest analysis show substantial snowpack over the upper
Mississippi and upper Ohio River Valleys. Snow water equivalent
values are 1 to 2 inches in the upper Ohio Valley, and 3 to 9 inches
in the upper Mississippi Valley.

RAINFALL.
Over the past 90 days, above normal precipitation has occurred over
the entire Mid-South region. Rainfall has averaged 150 to 200
percent of normal, or 8 to 12 inches above normal. The area of above-
normal precipitation extended into the Ohio and mid Mississippi
River Valleys.

RECENT FLOODING.
During the early part of 2019, widespread river and areal flooding
has occurred across the Mid-South. Moderate to major flooding was
observed along the Mississippi, Tennessee, Wolf, Loosahatchie, South
Fork Forked Deer, Coldwater, and Tallahatchie Rivers. Widespread
heavy rain brought areal flooding to portions of northern
Mississippi, west Tennessee, and eastern Arkansas.

RESERVOIR STATUS.
The reservoirs in the area are at elevated levels and the water
supply storage capacities are very high. The flood storage on
most reservoirs are over 50 percent.

DROUGHT AREAS.
With the recent significant rainfall, no areas of the Mid-South are
in drought status.

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOKS...

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK.
The 8 to 14 day precipitation outlook has increased odds for above-
normal precipitation over the entire Mid-South. The strongest odds
are near and west of the Mississippi River. The 30-day outlook for
March has odds for above-normal precipitation continuing over the
Mid-South and northward into the Ohio Valley. Strongest odds are
over northern Mississippi. The 3-month outlook for March/April/May
continues the trend with slight odds for above-normal precipitation
over the Mid-South.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK.
Much above average flood potential for the rivers in the Mid-
South. Therefore, expect to see the number and magnitude of river
floods to be higher than normal.


RELATED WEBSITES...

For detailed information concerning weather conditions, river
stages, and forecasts for the Mid-South, please visit the following
websites.

**NWS WFO Memphis:  www.weather.gov/memphis
**Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center:  www.weather.gov/lmrfc
**NWS WFO Memphis Lake/River Status:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=meg
**NOAA AHPS Rainfall Totals:  water.weather.gov/precip
**Climate Prediction Center:  www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
**U.S. Drought Information:  www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

If you have any questions or comments about this Spring Flood
Outlook, please contact:

NWS WFO Memphis, TN
7777 Walnut Grove Rd., Suite 1
Memphis, TN 38120
Phone: 901-544-0399
Email: sr-meg.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$


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